arXiv research

Study evaluates cryptocurrency option pricing models, finds Kou and Bates models perform best.

We evaluate the hedging performance of a high-order compact finite difference scheme from [4] for option pricing in Bates model. We compare the scheme's hedging performance to standard finite difference methods in different examples. We observe that the new scheme outperforms a standard, second-order central finite dif…

Unified model for equity option pricing and interest-rate risk assessment.

Credit value adjustment (CVA) is the charge applied by financial institutions to the counterparty to cover the risk of losses on a counterpart default event. In this paper we estimate such a premium under the Bates stochastic model (Bates [4]), which considers an underlying affected by both stochastic volatility and ra…

In the present paper we present a finite element approach for option pricing in the framework of a well-known stochastic volatility model with jumps, the Bates model. In this model the asset log-returns are assumed to follow a jump-diffusion model where the jump component consists of a Levy process of compound Poisson …

A new method for pricing options with stochastic volatility and jumps.

Paper assesses error estimates of Random Forests classification.

This is a postprint of our paper "Force free Moebius motions of the circle" (J. Geom. Symmetry Phys. 27 (2012) 59-65), which we hadn't uploaded to arXiv previously. We would like to draw attention to the relationship with the article "A geometry where everything is better than nice", by Larry Bates and Peter Gibson (to…

European options can be priced by solving parabolic partial(-integro) differential equations under stochastic volatility and jump-diffusion models like Heston, Merton, and Bates models. American option prices can be obtained by solving linear complementary problems (LCPs) with the same operators. A finite difference di…

We discuss a semi-analytical method for solving SABR-type equations based on path integrals. In this approach, one set of variables is integrated analytically while the second set is integrated numerically via Monte-Carlo. This method, known in the literature as Conditional Monte-Carlo, leads to compact expressions fun…

Enhanced volatility forecasting using options data and rough volatility model.

We develop and study stability properties of a hybrid approximation of functionals of the Bates jump model with stochastic interest rate that uses a tree method in the direction of the volatility and the interest rate and a finite-difference approach in order to handle the underlying asset price process. We also propos…

We consider a class of asset pricing models, where the risk-neutral joint process of log-price and its stochastic variance is an affine process in the sense of Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer [2003]. First we obtain conditions for the price process to be conservative and a martingale. Then we present some results o…

We develop high-order approximations for the Heston model.

In this paper we derive a generic decomposition of the option pricing formula for models with finite activity jumps in the underlying asset price process (SVJ models). This is an extension of the well-known result by Alos (2012) for Heston (1993) SV model. Moreover, explicit approximation formulas for option prices are…

Investor optimizes worst-case portfolio in uncertain markets.

The paper analyzes robustness and sensitivity of rough Volterra stochastic volatility models.

In this article, we provide representations of European and American exchange option prices under stochastic volatility jump-diffusion (SVJD) dynamics following models by Merton (1976), Heston (1993), and Bates (1996). A Radon-Nikodym derivative process is also introduced to facilitate the shift from the objective mark…

Financial derivatives pricing aims to find the fair value of a financial contract on an underlying asset. Here we consider option pricing in the partial differential equations framework. The contemporary models lead to one-dimensional or multidimensional parabolic problems of the convection-diffusion type and generaliz…

Proposes a new jump-diffusion model for option pricing.

We develop a new Monte Carlo variance reduction method to estimate the expectation of two commonly encountered path-dependent functionals: first-passage times and occupation times of sets. The method is based on a recursive approximation of the first-passage time probability and expected occupation time of sets of a Le…

We compare the CPU effort and pricing biases of seven Fourier-based implementations. Our analyses show that truncation and discretization errors significantly increase as we move away from the Black-Scholes-Merton framework. We rank the speed and accuracy of the competing choices, showing which methods require smaller …

Let $σ_t(x)$ denote the implied volatility at maturity $t$ for a strike $K=S_0 e^{xt}$, where $x\in\bbR$ and $S_0$ is the current value of the underlying. We show that $σ_t(x)$ has a uniform (in $x$) limit as maturity $t$ tends to infinity, given by the formula $σ_\infty(x)=\sqrt{2}(h^*(x)^{1/2}+(h^*(x)-x)^{1/2})$, for…

We derive a new high-order compact finite difference scheme for option pricing in stochastic volatility jump models, e.g. in Bates model. In such models the option price is determined as the solution of a partial integro-differential equation. The scheme is fourth order accurate in space and second order accurate in ti…

Proves rectifiability for specific metric spaces with unique tangents.

The paper proposes a new method to calibrate option pricing models that accurately match both volatility surfaces and variance term structures.

Flexible models predict US Census survey response rates.

Novel method for estimating currency option parameters with improved accuracy.

Extends risk control to adaptive data collection, anytime-valid guarantees.

Study on robustness of learning-based novelty detection methods under adversarial attacks.

Reduces proper actions to simpler core actions for analysis.

Derivative-informed models improve financial surrogates for accurate hedging and risk management.

This work proposes using Conformal Prediction to improve OOD detection scores and vice versa.

The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.

The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.

Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.

The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.

Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.

Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.

New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.

The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.

Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.

CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.

Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.

Interpretable machine learning has become a strong competitor for traditional black-box models. However, the possible loss of the predictive performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable, putting practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between high accuracy (black-box models) and interpretability (interpr…

Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…

Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.

Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.