A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper critiques the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) for operational risk and recommends maintaining Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA).
By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur with economic intuition, the risk weight formulas proposed by the committee wil…
A new methodology for incorporating LGD correlation effects into the Basel II risk weight functions is introduced. This methodology is based on modelling of LGD and default event with a single loss variable. The resulting formulas for capital charges are numerically compared to the current proposals by the Basel Commit…
Recently, Basel Committee for Banking Supervision proposed to replace all approaches, including Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), for operational risk capital with a simple formula referred to as the Standardised Measurement Approach (SMA). This paper discusses and studies the weaknesses and pitfalls of SMA such as …
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks ve…
Study assesses the impact of Basel III reforms on Bangladeshi banks.
We test the hypothesis that interconnections across financial institutions can be explained by a diversification motive. This idea stems from the empirical evidence of the existence of long-term exposures that cannot be explained by a liquidity motive (maturity or currency mismatch). We model endogenous interconnection…
We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset are conditioned by information on the way in which the variable evolves from simil…
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
On March 4th 2016 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published a consultative document where a new methodology, called the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA), is introduced for computing Operational Risk regulatory capital for banks. In this note, the behavior of the SMA is studied under a variety of hypot…
Committee neural network models improve accuracy and enable active learning for interatomic potentials.
This research tackles image classification with noise, proposing committees of CNNs.
The study examines how board diversity and CSR committee composition affect corporate governance and financial performance.
This paper improves active learning by using robust divergences for committee disagreement.
In this work, we describe a framework that unifies many different interactive learning tasks. We present a generalization of the {\it query-by-committee} active learning algorithm for this setting, and we study its consistency and rate of convergence, both theoretically and empirically, with and without noise.
Active learning is a powerful approach to analyzing data effectively. We show that the feasibility of active learning depends crucially on the choice of measure with respect to which the query is being optimized. The standard information gain, for example, does not permit an accurate evaluation with a small committee, …
ImmuNeCS uses AI immune system to build neural committees for efficient deep learning model creation.
We consider market players with tail-risk-seeking behaviour as exemplified by the S-shaped utility introduced by Kahneman and Tversky. We argue that risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are ineffective in constraining such players. We show that, in many standard market models, product d…
Financial institutions are currently required to meet more stringent capital requirements than they were before the recent financial crisis; in particular, the capital requirement for a large bank's trading book under the Basel 2.5 Accord more than doubles that under the Basel II Accord. The significant increase in cap…
Active learning improves SR by proposing experiments in data-limited settings.
A justification of the Basel liquidity formula for risk capital in the trading book is given under the assumption that market risk-factor changes form a Gaussian white noise process over 10-day time steps and changes to P&L are linear in the risk-factor changes. A generalization of the formula is derived under the more…
Optimizes bank capital structure under Basel III constraints, simplifying complex dynamics.
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk implements an asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model. Measurements from the ASRF model of the prevailing state of Australia's economy and the level of capitalisation of its banking sector find general agreement with macroeconomic…
Heuristic tools from statistical physics have been used in the past to locate the phase transitions and compute the optimal learning and generalization errors in the teacher-student scenario in multi-layer neural networks. In this contribution, we provide a rigorous justification of these approaches for a two-layers ne…
Study uses LLMs to simplify financial regulation interpretation.
In addition to constraining bilateral exposures of financial institutions, there are essentially two options for future financial regulation of systemic risk (SR): First, financial regulation could attempt to reduce the financial fragility of global or domestic systemically important financial institutions (G-SIBs or D…
This paper presents a description of the mechanical operations of banking as used in modern banking systems regulated under the Basel Accords, in order to provide support for a verifiable and complete description of the banking system suitable for computer simulation. Feedback is requested on the contents of this docum…
We set the context for capital approximation within the framework of the Basel II / III regulatory capital accords. This is particularly topical as the Basel III accord is shortly due to take effect. In this regard, we provide a summary of the role of capital adequacy in the new accord, highlighting along the way the s…
In this paper we implement a Local Linear Regression Ensemble Committee (LOLREC) to predict 1-day-ahead returns of 453 assets form the S&P500. The estimates and the historical returns of the committees are used to compute the weights of the portfolio from the 453 stock. The proposed method outperforms benchmark portfol…
REALITrees uses a Rashomon ensemble approach for active learning in sparse decision trees.
As part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective is to create monthly or quarterly TPMs with predefined sectors and ratings that …
Basel III introduces new capital charges for CVA. These charges, and the Basel 2.5 default capital charge can be mitigated by CDS. Therefore, to price in the capital relief that CDS contracts provide, we introduce a CDS pricing model with three legs: premium; default protection; and capital relief. If markets are compl…
This paper investigates and evaluates support vector machine active learning algorithms for use with imbalanced datasets, which commonly arise in many applications such as information extraction applications. Algorithms based on closest-to-hyperplane selection and query-by-committee selection are combined with methods …
We present a dialogue on Counterparty Credit Risk touching on Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR), Potential Future Exposure (PFE), Expected Exposure (EE), Expected Positive Exposure (EPE), Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Debit Valuation Adjustment (DVA), DVA Hedging, Closeout conventions, Netting clauses, Collateral …
Effective risk control must make a tradeoff between the microprudential risk of exogenous shocks to individual institutions and the macroprudential risks caused by their systemic interactions. We investigate a simple dynamical model for understanding this tradeoff, consisting of a bank with a leverage target and an unl…
Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and expansions around the mean (915.4 billion Euros, s.e.=3.59 billion Euros) of the n…
On June 26th, 2004, Central bank governors and the heads of bank supervisory authorities in the Group of Ten (G10) countries issued a press release and endorsed the publication of "International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: a Revised Framework", the new capital adequacy framework commonly k…
Proposes a new method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
FedSight AI predicts federal funds rate using LLMs and multi-agent reasoning.
Circle packings on compact surfaces simplified.
In recent years, the counterparty credit risk measure, namely the default risk in \emph{Over The Counter} (OTC) derivatives contracts, has received great attention by banking regulators, specifically within the frameworks of \emph{Basel II} and \emph{Basel III.} More explicitly, to obtain the related risk figures, one …
We show that some specific market risk measures implied by current international capital regulation (the Basel Accords and the Capital Adequacy Directive of the European Union) violate the obvious requirement of convexity in some regions in the space of portfolio weights.
New method calibrates Gaussian product experts for better predictions.
Threadneedle is a multi-agent simulation framework, based on a full double entry book keeping implementation of the banking system's fundamental transactions. It is designed to serve as an experimental test bed for economic simulations that can explore the banking system's influence on the macro-economy under varying a…
This work reviews and tests risk allocation strategies in finance, highlighting Shapley allocation's advantages.
This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocati…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…
The Basel II Accords have sparked increased interest in the development of approaches based on internal ratings systems and have initiated the elaboration of models for remote ratings forecasts based on external ones as part of Risk Management and Early Warning Systems. This article evaluates the peculiarities of curre…