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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,982 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Bag-level prediction

Paper addresses instance-level label prediction in MIL, improving performance compared to existing methods.

problem Lack of instance-level label prediction in existing MIL approaches restricts their applicability.
method Proposes a novel algorithm with instance-level loss function, unbiasedly and consistently estimated.
result Empirically validated superior instance-level and bag-level performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Improves key instance detection in MIL models by using neural network inversion with sparseness constraint.

problem Limited key instance detection performance in attention-based deep MIL models due to skewed attention scores.
method Sparse network inversion with a sparseness constraint incorporated into neural network inversion, solved by proximal gradient method.
result Significantly improved key instance detection performance while maintaining bag-level prediction performance.

This paper compares two loss functions for learning from aggregated responses and introduces an interpolating estimator.

problem Learning from aggregated responses in privacy-sensitive settings.
method Investigates bag-level and instance-level loss functions, and introduces an interpolating estimator.
result Instance-level loss can be seen as a regularized form of bag-level loss, leading to improved estimators.

New framework learns labels at both bag and graph levels.

problem Learning multi-label classifiers from multi-graph bags.
method Designing scoring functions and rank-loss objective for graph and bag levels; developing sub-gradient descent algorithm.
result Superior performance over state-of-the-art algorithms.

Existing relation classification methods that rely on distant supervision assume that a bag of sentences mentioning an entity pair are all describing a relation for the entity pair. Such methods, performing classification at the bag level, cannot identify the mapping between a relation and a sentence, and largely suffe…

2018-08-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method to generate instance labels from weakly supervised data.

problem Weakly supervised instance labeling in medical image analysis.
method Uses multiple instance learning (MIL) and knowledge distillation to generate instance-level predictions.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MIL methods in instance-level prediction.

Generative adversarial networks learn from label proportions without distributional restrictions.

problem Learning from label proportions with limited information.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) for LLP-GAN, approximating label proportions without distributional assumptions.
result Global optimality of LLP-GAN proved under mild assumptions.

In multi-instance (MI) learning, each object (bag) consists of multiple feature vectors (instances), and is most commonly regarded as a set of points in a multidimensional space. A different viewpoint is that the instances are realisations of random vectors with corresponding probability distribution, and that a bag is…

2018-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Many objects in the real world are difficult to describe by a single numerical vector of a fixed length, whereas describing them by a set of vectors is more natural. Therefore, Multiple instance learning (MIL) techniques have been constantly gaining on importance throughout last years. MIL formalism represents each obj…

2016-09-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) is a well-known method for dimensionality reduction and classification. Previous studies have also extended the binary-class case into multi-classes. However, many applications, such as object detection and keyframe extraction cannot provide consistent instance-label pairs, while LDA …

2013-09-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper improves deep learning for instance-level classification from label proportions.

problem Dealing with noisy pseudo-labeling and high-entropy class distributions in LLP.
method Introducing a two-stage training approach with constrained optimization and mixup strategy.
result Significant performance improvement in instance-level classification.

A simple neural network approach for Multiple Instance Learning.

problem Weak supervision in machine learning where labels are available for groups of examples called bags.
method Bag-level ranking loss function for any neural architecture.
result Our method is effective and comparable to existing methods in practical scenarios.

Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.

problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.

Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.

problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.

This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.

problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.

Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.

problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.

Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.

problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.

The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.

problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.

Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.

problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.

Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.

problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…

2019-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.

problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.

Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.

problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.

ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.

problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.

Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.

problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.

New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.

problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.

RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.

FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.

problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.

COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.

problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.

Proposes a model to update industrial data predictions based on temporal changes.

problem Improving prediction accuracy in industrial data analytics by addressing changing conditions over time.
method Integrates similarity and loss functions to estimate and update prediction models adaptively.
result The data renewal model enhances prediction accuracy by identifying and updating model changes.

Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In this paper we develop split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems tha…

2019-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Prediction is arguably one of the most basic functions of an intelligent system. In general, the problem of predicting events in the future or between two waypoints is exceedingly difficult. However, most phenomena naturally pass through relatively predictable bottlenecks---while we cannot predict the precise trajector…

2018-08-23abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves predictive systems with better theoretical guarantees.

problem Constructing predictive systems with out-of-sample calibration guarantees.
method Residual Distribution Predictive Systems (RDPs) that nest conformal predictive systems and offer flexibility.
result Empirically, RDPs perform competitively with conformal predictive systems and can be implemented with various regression methods.

Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.

problem Bayesian inference's computational costs and posterior predictive distribution marginalization.
method Variational Prediction learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound.
result Directly learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution without test time marginalization costs.