In this paper, we introduce a large class of convergent numerical methods, based on (linear) basis function regression technique, to approximate the solution to a forward-backward stochastic differential equation with jumps (FBSDEJ hereafter). Numerical experiment shows good applicability of the proposed method.
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48 results for “Backward Regression”
Proposes a new algorithm for Sparse Bayesian Learning connected to Stepwise Regression.
problem Sparse Bayesian Learning for probabilistic models.
method Coordinate ascent algorithm (RMP) for SBL, showing connection to Stepwise Regression.
result RMP's noise variance parameter limit connects to Stepwise Regression, with derived guarantees.
In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each backward induction step by adding new basis functions based on previously estimat…
SGD converges with perturbed forward-backward passes, explained by geometric amplification.
problem Analyzing convergence of SGD with perturbed forward-backward passes in composite optimization.
method Characterized propagation and amplification of perturbations, derived convergence guarantees for non-convex and PL objectives.
result Perturbations cascade through the computational graph, affecting convergence order under specific conditions.
We propose a new forward-backward stochastic differential equation solver for high-dimensional derivatives pricing problems by combining deep learning solver with least square regression technique widely used in the least square Monte Carlo method for the valuation of American options. Our numerical experiments demonst…
We investigate the optimal structure of dynamic regression models used in multivariate time series prediction and propose a scheme to form the lagged variable structure called Backward-in-Time Selection (BTS) that takes into account feedback and multi-collinearity, often present in multivariate time series. We compare …
Second-order estimator improves continuous-time policy evaluation.
problem Estimating value surfaces from discrete data with time-inhomogeneous dynamics.
method Moment-matching coefficients for high-order generator regression.
result Second-order estimator consistently outperforms Bellman baseline.
Optimal dual martingales, their analysis and application to new algorithms for Bermudan productsq-fin.CP
In this paper we introduce and study the concept of optimal and surely optimal dual martingales in the context of dual valuation of Bermudan options, and outline the development of new algorithms in this context. We provide a characterization theorem, a theorem which gives conditions for a martingale to be surely optim…
A numerical algorithm for fully nonlinear HJB equations: an approach by control randomizationmath.PR
We propose a probabilistic numerical algorithm to solve Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with nonnegative jumps, a class of BSDEs introduced in [9] for representing fully nonlinear HJB equations. In particular, this allows us to numerically solve stochastic control problems with controlled volatility,…
New method uses tensor trains for efficient PDE approximation.
problem High-dimensional PDEs and the curse of dimensionality.
method Tensor trains and backward stochastic differential equations for parabolic PDEs.
result Achieves a favorable trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency.
In this era of big data, feature selection techniques, which have long been proven to simplify the model, makes the model more comprehensible, speed up the process of learning, have become more and more important. Among many developed methods, forward and stepwise feature selection regression remained widely used due t…
Tensor trains simplify solving complex PDEs efficiently.
problem Solving high-dimensional parabolic PDEs using traditional methods is computationally infeasible.
method Reformulate PDEs as backward stochastic differential equations and use tensor train format for compression and efficient computation.
result Tensor train methods achieve a good balance between accuracy and computational efficiency.
Valuation of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) has become an important field as its calculation is required in Basel III, issued in 2010, in the wake of the credit crisis. Exposure, which is defined as the potential future loss of a default event without any recovery, is one of the key elementsfor pricing CVA. This pap…
Paper presents a new backward deep BSDE method for solving nonlinear FBSDE problems.
problem Nonlinear Forward Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDE) with terminal conditions.
method Backward deep BSDE method applied to FBSDE with nonlinear generators and random initial conditions.
result Derives exact and Taylor-based approximations for time-stepping nonlinear BSDEs.
In this paper, we study the evolving behaviors of the first eigenvalue of Laplace-Beltrami operator under the normalized backward Ricci flow, construct various quantities which are monotonic under the backward Ricci flow and get upper and lower bounds. We prove that in cases where the backward Ricci flow converges to a…
An analysis of linear regression and neural networks approximation for the pricing of swing optionsq-fin.MF
This paper compares linear regression and neural networks for pricing swing options.
problem Pricing swing options using approximation methods.
method Linear regression and neural networks for approximating the continuation value and swing price.
result The approximation methods converge to the actual swing price as the number of functions or Monte Carlo samples increases.
Study numerical methods for singular FBSDEs with degenerate forward component.
problem Numerical approximation of singular fully coupled FBSDEs with degenerate forward component and non-smooth terminal condition.
method Splitting approach to treat diffusion and transport parts separately.
result The splitting method converges with rate 1/2 under structural condition.
A note relating ridge regression and OLS p-values to preconditioned sparse penalized regressionstat.ML
When the design matrix has orthonormal columns, "soft thresholding" the ordinary least squares (OLS) solution produces the Lasso solution [Tibshirani, 1996]. If one uses the Puffer preconditioned Lasso [Jia and Rohe, 2012], then this result generalizes from orthonormal designs to full rank designs (Theorem 1). Theorem …
Tensor network architecture for classification and regression using wavelet transformations.
problem Efficiently performing classification and regression tasks on complex data.
method Tensor network layers based on MERA and MPS, with adaptive fine-graining.
result Adaptive fine-graining improves model performance without loss in accuracy.
A new method ranks and selects features without model fitting.
problem Feature importance measures algorithm-specific and need improvement.
method Integrates global sensitivity analysis with forward selection and backward elimination.
result Demonstrates clear advantage over state-of-the-art methods.
The paper analyzes stability and asymptotic behavior of hedging strategies in binomial and trinomial models.
problem Stability and asymptotic analysis of hedging strategies in incomplete financial models.
method Discrete-time Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition, perturbation analysis, and asymptotic approximation.
result Explicit formulas for leading order correction terms in asymptotic analysis.
Backward exploration reduces sample complexity in policy evaluation.
problem Empirical policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.
method Backward exploration algorithms from high-cost states.
result Reduced average-case sample complexity to .
The study introduces backward baselines to distinguish past prediction from future prediction in machine learning models.
problem Differentiating between past and future prediction in machine learning models.
method Theoretical, empirical, and normative arguments support a family of simple and efficient statistical tests called backward baselines.
result The study provides a meaningful backward baseline for auditing black-box prediction systems.
The paper extends NUP representations to factor graphs for better estimation.
problem Nontrivial model-based estimation problems.
method Augmenting factor graphs with convex-dual variables and NUP representations; proposing a new iterative algorithm.
result A new dual algorithm for state space problems.
Study proves existence of equilibrium in incomplete economies with discontinuous volatility.
problem Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with nondegenerate endogenous volatility.
method Established existence of solution for Markovian quadratic BSDEs with discontinuous generators using unique continuation and backward uniqueness.
result Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with nondegenerate endogenous volatility.
This study improves stock price prediction for Apple Inc. using feature selection and regression models with technical indicators.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy for Apple Inc. using technical indicators.
method Evaluation of 123 technical indicators and 10 regression models on 13 years of Apple Inc. data.
result Combining feature selection with regression models significantly improves prediction accuracy.
Paper presents IMRCs for evolving tasks with forward and backward learning.
problem Incremental learning of evolving tasks with few samples per task.
method Incremental minimax risk classifiers (IMRCs) that exploit forward and backward learning.
result IMRCs provide significant performance improvement, especially with reduced sample sizes.
Backwards uniqueness proved for flows with asymptotically conical singularities.
problem Proving uniqueness of mean curvature flows with specific singularities.
method Developed new global tools to handle singularities, asymptotic structure, and smooth parts of flows.
result Backwards uniqueness for mean curvature flows with asymptotically conical singularities proved.
In this note, we will show a backwards uniqueness theorem of the mean curvature flow with bounded second fundamental form in arbitrary codimension.
The Libor market model is a mainstay term structure model of interest rates for derivatives pricing, especially for Bermudan swaptions, and other exotic Libor callable derivatives. For numerical implementation the pricing of derivatives with Libor market models is mainly carried out with Monte Carlo simulation. The PDE…
We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and play…
In this introductory paper, we discuss how quantitative finance problems under some common risk factor dynamics for some common instruments and approaches can be formulated as time-continuous or time-discrete forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) final-value or control problems, how these final val…
This work extends set-valued risk measures to discrete time, using difference inclusions and equations.
problem Defining set-valued dynamic risk measures in discrete time.
method Investigates discrete time setting with difference inclusions and difference equations.
result Provides insights for continuous time representations of set-valued dynamic risk measures.
In this paper, we further study the forward-backward envelope first introduced in [28] and [30] for problems whose objective is the sum of a proper closed convex function and a twice continuously differentiable possibly nonconvex function with Lipschitz continuous gradient. We derive sufficient conditions on the origin…
Backward SDEs help price XVA for OTC derivatives.
problem XVA valuation for OTC derivatives with default risk.
method Review and apply BSDEs with random horizon.
result Explicit formula for XVA correction terms.
The study examines backward compatibility issues in ML systems, especially with noisy data.
problem Backward compatibility challenges in ML systems, especially with noisy data.
method Empirical analysis of ML systems across different architectures and datasets, focusing on data shifts and noise.
result Backward compatibility issues arise even without data shift due to optimization stochasticity and training on large-scale noisy datasets can significantly decrease compatibility.
Recurrent neural networks' hidden state can be reconstructed from its past, providing a theoretical framework for stability and tracking.
problem Hidden-state stability in RNNs
method Backward coherence analysis
result Almost-sure convergence, rates under mixing, interpretable limiting representation, finite pathwise stopping times, and theoretical framework for time-uniform confidence sequences.
Generative models speed up complex system simulations.
problem Accurately forecasting the dynamics of complex systems at reduced cost.
method Generative Learning of Effective Dynamics (G-LED) using auto-regressive attention and Bayesian diffusion models.
result Generative models can accurately forecast complex system dynamics at lower computational cost.
New method uses backward SDEs for deep learning uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Probabilistic machine learning with stochastic neural networks and stochastic optimal control.
result Effectiveness validated through numerical experiments.
Backward propagation rules for warped products under Ricci flow.
problem Understanding how warped product structures behave under Ricci flow.
method Establishing sufficient conditions for backward propagation of warped product structures.
result Asymptotically conical shrinkers are multiply-warped products over Einstein manifolds.
Paper approximates backward heat equation using wave equations and Ricci flow.
problem Solving backward heat equation on manifolds using wave equations.
method Approximates solutions of a wave equation on a larger manifold with Ricci flow to solve the backward heat equation.
result The approximation provides solutions to the backward heat equation on manifolds.
In this paper, we prove a unique continuation or ``backwards-uniqueness'' theorem for solutions to the Ricci flow. A particular consequence is that the isometry group of a solution cannot expand within the lifetime of the solution.
Backward stochastic difference equations on lattices with application to market equilibrium analysismath.PR
Study BSΔE on lattices for asset price analysis.
problem Optimal investment and market equilibrium analysis in asset price models.
method Backward stochastic difference equations on lattices.
result Applications to optimal investment and market equilibrium analysis.
The paper defines a frequency for mean curvature flow and proves its monotonicity.
problem Backwards uniqueness for solutions of mean curvature flow.
method Defining and proving monotonicity of a parabolic frequency for mean curvature flows.
result Frequency monotonicity implies backwards uniqueness for mean curvature flow solutions.
SABR smiles for RFR capletsq-fin.PR
Extends SABR model for pricing RFR caplets.
problem Pricing backward RFR caplets in a post-Libor market.
method Closed-form effective SABR parameters for backward RFR caplets.
result Closed-form solution for backward RFR caplets.
DG improves policy gradient efficiency by selectively backpropagating only valuable samples.
problem Expensive backward passes in policy gradient methods reduce efficiency.
method Introduces 'delight' as a forward-pass signal of learning value and a Kondo gate to selectively backpropagate.
result Selective backpropagation reduces backward pass costs without sacrificing learning quality.
Paper proposes efficient training for normalizing flows in Boltzmann generators.
problem Training normalizing flows for Boltzmann generators is computationally challenging and unstable.
method Regression Training of Normalizing Flows (RegFlow) using -regression.
result RegFlow enables efficient and stable training of normalizing flows for Boltzmann generators.
New method for insurance valuation combining hedging and risk minimization.
problem Current insurance valuation methods do not reflect regulatory risk measures.
method Two-step hedging procedure using generalised regression.
result The method produces portfolios neutral to risk measures like VaR or expectiles.