Neural ARFIMA model improves exchange rate forecasting for BRIC economies.
problem Forecasting exchange rates for emerging markets with long-term memory and nonlinear dynamics.
method Integrates ARFIMA for long-memory with neural networks for nonlinear approximation.
result NARFIMA model outperforms benchmarks in BRIC exchange rate forecasting.
Study examines how BRICS nations' economies respond to COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on BRICS nations' economic indicators.
method Structural variable autoregression (SVAR) to analyze growth, exchange rate, and stock market data.
result COVID-19 shock to exchange rate growth persists for 10+ days, stock market growth for 15 days.
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
problem Systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
method Dynamic Time Warping, Temporal Graph Neural Network, Agent-Based Model.
result Geopolitical shocks cause more systemic damage than bank failures.
Study examines dynamic relationship between BRICS stocks and cryptocurrencies.
problem Understanding the impact of BRICS stock markets on cryptocurrency markets.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR).
result Three out of five BRICS stock markets are primary sources of shocks affecting the financial network.
Study examines spillovers between BRICS and U.S. staple grain futures markets.
problem Contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets.
method Examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects using econometric models.
result Contemporaneous spillovers dominate, and net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S.
Model predicts majority of countries will prefer BRI over USD by 2020.
problem Predicting currency preferences in global trade networks.
method Opinion formation model based on UN Comtrade database, Monte Carlo simulations.
result By 2020, majority of countries prefer BRI over USD.
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
We investigate the relationships of the VIX with US and BRIC markets. In detail, we pick up the analysis from the point left off by (Sarwar, 2012), and we focus on the period: Jan 2007 - Feb 2018, thus capturing the relations before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. Results pinpoint frequent structural break…
The study revises GDPpc trends and redistributes economic power among countries.
problem Analyzing global economic power shifts over time.
method Modeling GDPpc as a trend and fluctuations, analyzing historical data.
result Revised GDPpc trends show significant shifts in global economic power.
The study examines tail dependence between global economic uncertainty and BRICS currencies using high-frequency data.
problem Understanding the tail dependence between exchange rates and economic uncertainty.
method Daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates analyzed using time-varying copula framework.
result Indian, Russian, and South African currencies exhibit elliptical copulas, while Brazilian and Chinese currencies show upward trending tail dependence.
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
problem Understanding and predicting worldwide trade crises.
method Modeling worldwide trade network using Google matrix analysis and bankruptcy threshold.
result Crisis contagion is localized for high trade balance, global for low trade balance.
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, sen…
This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success. Futur…
Paper presents an econophysics model for mixed economies.
problem Understanding mixed economies in various countries.
method Developed an econophysics model with a reduced state sector participation.
result Proposed a new model with a 10-15% state sector participation.
Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.
problem Risks and uncertainties in establishing a low-carbon economy in Balkan countries with transition economies.
method Transdisciplinary approach combining economic policy, public opinion, and climate change models.
result Identifies shadow economy and populism as key risk factors for low-carbon economy implementation.
Paper proposes a framework for token economy simulation and wealth distribution.
problem Simulation and regulation of token economies.
method Formal analysis framework for tokenomics, defining mechanisms for wealth distribution and stability.
result Algorithmic regulatory controls for token economies to achieve desired wealth distribution.
Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.
problem Understanding crises in economic equilibrium models.
method Uses mathematical concepts like branching, envelopes, and intrinsic derivative.
result Establishes criteria to distinguish crises from other equilibria.
Analyzes how economic policies affect wealth distribution in Bitcoin token economy.
problem Impact of economic policies on wealth distribution in token economies.
method Eliminated noise in wealth distribution data using macroeconomic and microeconomic time series. Causality analysis between BIPs and wealth distribution data.
result Proposed a structure for economic policy taxonomy in token economies.
We discuss a Pareto macro-economy (a) in a closed system with fixed total wealth and (b) in an open system with average mean wealth and compare our results to a similar analysis in a super-open system (c) with unbounded wealth. Wealth condensation takes place in the social phase for closed and open economies, while it …
The study finds significant financial sector volatility and tail risk spillovers to real economy sectors.
problem Volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors.
method New measure of tail risk spillover, empirical analysis of U.S. economy 2001-2011.
result Significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors, especially during crises.
We study the competitive equilibrium of large random economies with linear activities using methods of statistical mechanics. We focus on economies with C commodities, N firms, each running a randomly drawn linear technology, and one consumer. We derive, in the limit N,C→∞ with n=N/C fixed, a complete de…
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
problem Understanding complex international trade and economy interactions.
method Developed a mathematical model for non-equilibrium processes in open systems.
result Predicted model accurately reflects international trade and economy.
The study examines the graphical mean curvature flow on compact manifolds with bounded bi-Ricci curvature.
problem Analyzing the graphical mean curvature flow of maps between manifolds with bounded bi-Ricci curvature.
method Proving long-time existence and preserving the strictly area decreasing property under bounded bi-Ricci curvature conditions.
result Smooth convergence to a minimal map under certain conditions on Ricci curvature.
Study finds nighttime lights correlate with Indian GDP growth.
problem Accurate forecasting of Indian economic growth.
method Examined relationship between GDP and nighttime lights using DMSP and VIIRS datasets.
result Nighttime lights correlate with Indian GDP growth.
Associating stock mechanics to real economy, in terms of volume, number of transactions, and cost, i.e. money flow for shares, we obtained the fundamental laws of stock mechanics.
A phase plot of the oil economy is built using the literature data of world oil production, price, and EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested). An analogy between the oil economy and the Benard convection is proposed; some methods of interpretation and forecast of the system behavior are also shown based on "phase p…
The green area of economy is the key of healthy living. It is necessary to convene economic and ecologic framework to establish a market attentive to drastic reduction of emissions damaging our climate and landscapes in rural areas, to the protection of biological diversity of the planet, to stop producing nuclear wast…
We present a model of an economy inspired by individual based model approaches in evolutionary ecology. We demonstrate that evolutionary dynamics in a space of companies interconnected through a correlated interaction matrix produces time dependencies of the total size of the economy total number of companies, companie…
This study analyzes global oil trade networks to assess their efficiency and robustness.
problem Dynamic monitoring and warning of international trade risks in global oil trade.
method Constructing unweighted and weighted global oil trade networks (OTNs) using UN Comtrade data from 1988 to 2017, and applying complex network theories.
result Efficiency of oil flows increases with complexity of OTNs, and weighted efficiency indicators highlight major events.
Model shows significant income inequality emerges from equal opportunities in a simple economy.
problem Income inequality in a simple foraging economy.
method Minimal, endogenous model of a simple foraging economy.
result Stochastic income distributions from the model match empirical data.
The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with N industries endowed with different technologies, P commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit N→∞ with n=N/P fixed using the replica method. When technologies are strictly inefficient, a phase transition occurs upon increas…
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
problem Analyzing and predicting relative spreads between economies in fixed income markets.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and kernel PCA.
result The new model outperforms the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model in explaining relative spreads.
Study on asset price dynamics in OLG economies with and without a bubbly asset.
problem Analyzing asset price dynamics and optimality in OLG economies with an asset that yields dividends.
method Deriving conditions for three scenarios of equilibrium existence, providing a complete characterization of the equilibrium set, and investigating the relationship between asset price behaviors and optimality.
result A bubbly equilibrium exists if and only if the interest rate is lower than the population growth rate and the sum of per capita dividends is finite.
We examine Kreps' (2019) conjecture that optimal expected utility in the classic Black--Scholes--Merton (BSM) economy is the limit of optimal expected utility for a sequence of discrete-time economies that "approach" the BSM economy in a natural sense: The nth discrete-time economy is generated by a scaled n-step r…
Emerging economies use countercyclical policies to manage crises and dominant currencies.
problem Managing economic crises and fluctuations in dominant currencies like USD and EUR.
method Theoretical analysis, case studies, econometric modeling.
result Emerging economies can stabilize growth with countercyclical monetary policies.
Paper combines CNN and GBoost for better stock price prediction.
problem Challenges in forecasting stock prices due to noise and uncertainties in market data.
method Combines Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and Gradient Boosting (GBoost) for stock price prediction.
result Experimental results show the proposed method outperforms current methods on six market indexes.
A non-parametric method for ranking stock indices according to their mutual causal influences is presented. Under the assumption that indices reflect the underlying economy of a country, such a ranking indicates which countries exert the most economic influence in an examined subset of the global economy. The proposed …
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.
Develops a framework to assess systemic risk in the economy using bank-firm network data.
problem Measuring systemic risk in the economy using multilayer network data.
method Unified framework combining techniques to reconstruct multilayer economy structure from bank and firm balance sheets, and dynamics of shock propagation.
result Identifies systemically important firms and banks, and assesses systemic risk determinants.
We study a minimalist kinetic model for economies. A system of agents with local trading rules display emergent demand behaviour. We examine the resulting wealth distribution to look for non-thermal behaviour. We compare and contrast this model with other similar models.
General equilibrium is the dominant theoretical framework for economic policy analysis at the level of the whole economy. In practice, general equilibrium treats economies as being always in equilibrium, albeit in a sequence of equilibria as driven by external changes in parameters. This view is sometimes defended on t…
GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will experience a real growth as of \%6. Now, the question is how long does it take for e…
Extends DeTEcT framework for token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.
problem Modeling wealth distribution in token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.
method Introduces four parametrization techniques: dynamic vs static, probabilistic vs non-probabilistic.
result Derives existing wealth distribution models from DeTEcT framework with added restrictions.
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable. But the small number of available observations and small number of economies mean …
This paper provides a coopetitive model for a global green economy, taking into account the environmental sustainability. In particular, we propose a differentiable coopetitive game G (in the sense recently introduced by D. Carf`ı) to represent a global green economy interaction, among a country c and the rest of the w…
Minimal model reveals power laws in financial markets.
problem Understanding universal behaviors in financial markets.
method Analytical solution of a minimal model based on symmetry constraints.
result Various power-law behaviors are interconnected, similar to critical exponents.
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
problem Optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
method An extension of the Black-Scholes-Merton model with a sequence of discrete-time economies.
result Optimal expected utility converges to the classic model when conditions are met.