We propose a probabilistic model for refining coarse-grained spatial data by utilizing auxiliary spatial data sets. Existing methods require that the spatial granularities of the auxiliary data sets are the same as the desired granularity of target data. The proposed model can effectively make use of auxiliary data set…
REGAIN learns optimal auxiliary directions for forecast reconciliation.
problem Forecast reconciliation from fixed systems; identifying useful auxiliary directions.
method REGAIN learns normalized auxiliary directions, forecasts induced series, and selects directions by loss reduction.
result Gain-selected auxiliary directions improve forecast quality, especially for residual uncertainty.
Perry uses auxiliary data to estimate RL policy values with confidence intervals.
problem Leveraging auxiliary datasets for off-policy evaluation with uncertainty quantification.
method Two methods for constructing valid confidence intervals for OPE with data augmentation.
result Methods consistently produce confidence intervals covering ground truth policy values.
The paper analyzes investment and consumption strategies under uncertain market conditions.
problem Investment and consumption under drift and volatility uncertainties.
method Randomization approach to construct robust preferences and strategies.
result Developed optimal and robust investment and consumption strategies remain valid in the physical market.
Bayesian deep learning improves geostatistical mapping with auxiliary data.
problem Traditional geostatistical methods are limited in feature learning and uncertainty estimation.
method Deep neural networks learn complex relationships from auxiliary data for probabilistic mapping.
result Deep learning produces detailed, probabilistic maps with uncertainty estimates.
Proposes a new method for robust uncertainty quantification in regression tasks.
problem Robust uncertainty estimation for deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Generalized Auxiliary Uncertainty Estimator (AuxUE) scheme, considering both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result DIDO method provides robust uncertainty estimates in noisy inputs, scalable to image-level and pixel-wise tasks.
Novel neural network models quantify uncertainty for deep classifiers.
problem Deep networks' overconfidence and ignorance about uncertainty.
method Variational autoencoders and GANs generate out-of-distribution samples.
result Better uncertainty estimates for in- and out-of-distribution samples.
New method uses neural networks to identify sources from limited data in complex systems.
problem Identifying sources from noisy and limited data in high-dimensional systems.
method Calibrating deep neural network surrogates to ensemble simulations and using Bayesian optimization for source identification.
result Reliable source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data and auxiliary processes.
Work proposes a new framework to improve uncertainty estimation in deep Bayesian models.
problem Traditional training procedures underestimate uncertainty in NLMs, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Introduces a novel training framework that captures useful predictive uncertainties for out-of-distribution inputs.
result Demonstrates that traditional methods for NLMs significantly underestimate uncertainty and propose a new framework to address this issue.
In this paper, we introduce a framework for solving finite-horizon multistage optimization problems under uncertainty in the presence of auxiliary data. We assume the joint distribution of the uncertain quantities is unknown, but noisy observations, along with observations of auxiliary covariates, are available. We uti…
Simplifies neural regression by combining two sub-networks for predictions and uncertainties.
problem Neural networks underestimate uncertainty, leading to overly confident predictions.
method Extends IRLS to a two-sub-network approach with shared representations and complementary loss functions.
result Proposed network is simpler to implement and more robust to uncertainty variations.
Paper develops a method to estimate value of a policy in confounded MDPs.
problem Estimating value of a policy in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
method Uses auxiliary variables to identify target policy's value in a confounded MDP.
result Develops an off-policy value estimator robust to model misspecification.
This work introduces a method to decompose uncertainty in in-context learning for large language models.
problem Understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning for large language models.
method Variational uncertainty decomposition framework without sampling from latent parameter posterior.
result Quantitative and qualitative validation of decomposed epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.
New method reduces uncertainty in deep neural networks with minimal computation.
problem Uncertainty in over-parameterized neural networks hinders reliability and statistical guarantees.
method Procedural-noise-correcting (PNC) predictor and resampling methods.
result Asymptotically exact-coverage confidence intervals constructed with minimal computation.
With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account for the stochasticity of models is challenging, it is common to augment prediction…
CASCADE improves uncertainty communication in Parkinson's disease medication management.
problem Uncertainty in clinical decision-making for Parkinson's disease patients.
method CASCADE uses a novel conformal prediction framework to adaptively scale prediction intervals based on classification uncertainty.
result CASCADE produces more efficient and robust prediction intervals for Parkinson's disease patients.
SXL embeds spatial autocorrelation into neural networks for better geographic data learning.
problem Difficulties in learning spatial effects for neural networks in geographic data.
method SXL uses auxiliary tasks and autoregressive embeddings to learn spatial autocorrelation.
result SXL improves neural network training in unsupervised and supervised learning tasks.
A novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework for hybrid uncertainty sensitivity analysis.
problem Quantifying the influence of hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on high-dimensional system responses.
method A novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework for sensitivity analysis under hybrid uncertainty.
result Concurrent double Möbius inversion orthogonally decomposes global dependence measure into pure aleatory effects, pure epistemic effects, and their interaction contributions.
Mixed likelihood GPs improve model performance in human-in-the-loop experiments.
problem Lack of auxiliary information in traditional GPs for human responses.
method Propose mixed likelihood variational GPs to leverage auxiliary information.
result Modeling performance improvements across diverse applications.
We reinterpret multiplicative noise in neural networks as auxiliary random variables that augment the approximate posterior in a variational setting for Bayesian neural networks. We show that through this interpretation it is both efficient and straightforward to improve the approximation by employing normalizing flows…
Study uses machine learning to predict soil organic carbon content in northern Iran.
problem Estimating soil organic carbon content for understanding soil functions.
method Applied machine learning algorithms including DNN, SVM, ANN, etc., with genetic algorithm feature selection.
result DNN model showed highest accuracy with low prediction error and uncertainty.
Random forests and LASSO methods improve small area estimation using auxiliary data.
problem Estimating household consumption in small areas with limited sampled data.
method Model-based small area estimation using random forests and LASSO with auxiliary information.
result Bayesian shrinkage performed best in terms of bias, MSE, and prediction interval coverages.
With the recently rapid development in deep learning, deep neural networks have been widely adopted in many real-life applications. However, deep neural networks are also known to have very little control over its uncertainty for unseen examples, which potentially causes very harmful and annoying consequences in practi…
AuxiLearn combines auxiliary tasks into a single loss function.
problem Improving neural network performance on a main task using auxiliary tasks.
method Implicit differentiation to learn a network that combines auxiliary tasks into a single coherent objective function.
result AuxiLearn consistently outperforms competing methods in various tasks and domains.
Develops methods to improve reliability of deep learning for autonomous driving.
problem Safety concerns in deploying autonomous driving systems.
method Introduces a new criterion (true class probability) for estimating model confidence and learns it from data.
result Proposed method provides better failure prediction than current uncertainty measures.
New method uses correlated auxiliary feedback to reduce regret in parameterized bandits.
problem Reducing regret in parameterized bandits with correlated auxiliary feedback.
method Develops a reward estimator using auxiliary feedback with tight confidence bounds.
result Shows significant reduction in regret compared to standard methods.
ISP improves DNN uncertainty for better subgroup accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy-group robustness in deep neural networks.
method Introspective Self-play (ISP) adds an introspection task to improve bias-awareness and uncertainty.
result ISP improves the accuracy-group robustness trade-off of AL methods.
In-N-Out improves model robustness to out-of-distribution data.
problem Learning robust models with few in-distribution labeled examples.
method Pre-training with auxiliary information and self-training with pseudolabels.
result In-N-Out outperforms auxiliary inputs or outputs alone on both in-distribution and OOD error.
Aux-NAS uses auxiliary labels to improve primary task performance without extra inference cost.
problem Improving primary task performance using auxiliary labels without increasing inference cost.
method Architecture-based approach with a flexible asymmetric structure for primary and auxiliary tasks, using Neural Architecture Search (NAS) to evolve networks with only primary-to-auxiliary connections.
result Achieves improved performance on multiple tasks without increasing inference cost.
LoBoost improves local conformal prediction for gradient-boosted trees without extra data splits.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in gradient-boosted tree predictions.
method Model-native local conformal prediction using leaf structure.
result Competitive interval quality and improved test MSE with large calibration speedups.
Learning with auxiliary tasks can improve the ability of a primary task to generalise. However, this comes at the cost of manually labelling auxiliary data. We propose a new method which automatically learns appropriate labels for an auxiliary task, such that any supervised learning task can be improved without requiri…
Unified approach for learning with weak labels across various tasks.
problem Learning with noisy or incomplete labels in diverse machine learning settings.
method Implicit posterior models for joint label inference.
result Unified training objective for various machine learning tasks.
Researchers identify valid auxiliary functions for extreme value distributions and their max-domains of attraction.
problem Characterize valid auxiliary functions for extreme value distributions and their max-domains of attraction.
method Introduced 'universal' auxiliary functions valid for both VR and vMR representations, identified sets of valid auxiliary functions, and proposed a method for finding appropriate auxiliary functions.
result Characterized valid auxiliary functions for both VR and vMR representations for the entire MDA distribution families.
D2D converts CLDs into SDMs to explore leverage points under uncertainty.
problem Limited dynamic analysis of CLDs for intervention strategies.
method Minimal user input protocol to convert CLDs into SDMs, simulating interventions.
result D2D helps distinguish leverage points and provides uncertainty estimates.
A framework for multilayer networks predicts links without shared structures.
problem Link prediction in multilayer networks without shared structures.
method Bi-level model averaging with K-fold cross-validation. result Framework outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and robustness.
Auxiliary Tuning adapts pre-trained models for novel tasks efficiently.
problem Adapting pre-trained models for new tasks efficiently.
method Supplementing pre-trained model with an auxiliary model that shifts output distribution.
result Achieved similar results to training from scratch with fewer resources.
The paper improves high-dimensional linear regression prediction and estimation using auxiliary samples.
problem Estimating and predicting high-dimensional linear regression models with auxiliary samples.
method Proposes Trans-Lasso for data-driven transfer learning, establishing optimality for prediction and estimation.
result Knowledge from auxiliary samples can improve learning performance in target problems.
In an equity market model with "Knightian" uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, we characterize in several ways the highest return relative to the market that can be achieved using nonanticipative investment rules over a given time horizon, and under any admissible configurati…
Algorithm improves decision-making with partially observed contexts using pretrained models.
problem Improving decision-making with partially observed contexts in online linear contextual bandits.
method PULSE-UCB algorithm that uses pretrained models trained on auxiliary data to impute missing features.
result Achieves near-optimal performance in i.i.d. context case with Hölder-smooth missing features.
Method reweights auxiliary tasks to reduce data need for main task.
problem Limited labeled data for supervised learning.
method Formulates weighted likelihood function as surrogate prior, minimizing divergence to true prior.
result Effective use of limited labeled data with auxiliary tasks, improving performance.
This paper reviews dMTL and methods for selecting auxiliary tasks.
problem Improving model performance for multiple tasks.
method Review of dMTL approaches and methods for selecting auxiliary tasks.
result Methods for selecting auxiliary tasks can improve dMTL performance.
Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary variables are not observed. Utilizing a parametric model of joint distribution of prima…
MFAI uses gradient boosted trees to leverage auxiliary info for scalable Bayesian matrix factorization.
problem Matrix factorization struggles with poor data quality, especially high sparsity and low SNR.
method Integrates gradient boosted trees into probabilistic matrix factorization framework.
result MFAI effectively leverages auxiliary information, improving model performance.
Multi-task learning (MTL) has achieved success over a wide range of problems, where the goal is to improve the performance of a primary task using a set of relevant auxiliary tasks. However, when the usefulness of the auxiliary tasks w.r.t. the primary task is not known a priori, the success of MTL models depends on th…
Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification for multi-modal data.
method Multi-modal Bayesian neural network models with conjugate last-layer estimation using SVI.
result Improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal models.
Proves Bochner's identity on graphs using a new auxiliary graph.
problem Extending Bochner's identity to graph theory.
method Introduces a complete tangent graph to prove the identity.
result Validates Bochner's identity on graphs.
ScoreFusion fuses multiple diffusion models to enhance generative modeling of a target population.
problem Enhancing generative modeling of a target population with limited data.
method ScoreFusion uses KL barycenters of auxiliary populations and recasts the learning problem as score matching in denoising diffusion.
result ScoreFusion achieves a dimension-free sample complexity bound in total variation distance.