Study shows refugee matching gains are robust to different evaluation methods.
problem Stability of refugee matching gains under various evaluation methods.
method Used multiple off-policy evaluation methods including IPW and AIPW.
result Impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude and statistically significant.
New algorithms improve estimation of treatment effects.
problem Estimating Average Treatment Effect (ATE) in adaptive settings.
method Optimistic algorithms for adaptive estimation using AIPW estimator.
result Significant theoretical and empirical gains over prior methods.
The paper proposes an efficient method for estimating ATEs using adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal sample size and high accuracy.
method The paper defines and uses the efficient treatment-assignment probability to sequentially assign treatments, estimating ATEs using an Adaptive Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (A2IPW) estimator.
result The proposed experimental design and A2IPW estimator achieve the minimized semiparametric efficiency bound and provide anytime valid confidence intervals for early stopping.
Optimal strategy found for identifying best arm in bandits with small gap.
problem Best arm identification in two-armed bandits with a fixed budget and small gap.
method Neyman allocation rule augmented with inverse probability weighting.
result Proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal when gap is small.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Proposes nAIPW for robust ATE estimation using neural networks.
problem Estimation of ATE with potential confounders and nonlinear relationships.
method Normalized AIPW (nAIPW) with neural networks and regularization.
result nAIPW maintains double-robustness and orthogonality properties.
Unified framework for semi-supervised regression with misspecified models.
problem Estimating regression coefficients in conditional mean models with unlabeled data.
method Developed an augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) method using regularized calibrated estimators for PS and OR nuisance models.
result The proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and provides valid confidence intervals even with misspecified OR models and high-dimensional data.
New nonparametric estimators improve causal effect estimation.
problem Estimation of causal effects with selection bias.
method Undersmoothing of the highly adaptive lasso for estimating the weighting mechanism.
result Asymptotic efficiency and convergence to nonparametric efficiency bound.
New strategy optimally identifies best arm in unknown variance Gaussian bandits.
problem Identifying the best arm in two-armed Gaussian bandits with unknown variances.
method Proposes a Neyman Allocation (NA)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW) strategy to estimate variances and draw arms adaptively.
result Demonstrates asymptotic optimality of the proposed strategy in the small-gap regime.
New methods for estimating causal effects with limited overlap, using Stable Probability Weighting.
problem Estimating causal effects with limited overlap in multivalued treatments.
method Stable Probability Weighting (SPW) and Finite-Sample Stable Probability Weighting (FPW) methods.
result SPW and FPW provide practical solutions for estimating and inferring causal effects with limited overlap.
Proposes stabilized weights for causal inference using isotonic calibration.
problem Stability and bias issues in inverse propensity weighting.
method Post-hoc isotonic calibration of inverse propensity weights.
result Improves performance of doubly robust estimators of average treatment effect.
We propose an algorithm for inexpensive gradient-based hyperparameter optimization that combines the implicit function theorem (IFT) with efficient inverse Hessian approximations. We present results about the relationship between the IFT and differentiating through optimization, motivating our algorithm. We use the pro…
New CLT for AIPW estimator in high-dimensional settings.
problem Estimating ATE in high-dimensional covariate scenarios.
method Cross-fitting AIPW estimator with well-specified models.
result Established a new CLT for the scaled cross-fit AIPW.
GEAR uses auxiliary data to estimate optimal decisions in studies with limited primary outcomes.
problem Estimating optimal decisions when primary outcomes are not available in experimental samples.
method GEAR uses augmented inverse propensity weighting to estimate optimal decisions based on auxiliary data.
result GEAR estimators and value estimators have established asymptotic properties and are validated in simulations and a real application.
New estimators improve causal inference in machine learning studies.
problem Improving causal inference in machine learning models.
method Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators for average causal effect.
result Doubly-robust cross-fit estimators outperform other methods in simulations.
Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…
New method improves causal effect estimation by addressing imbalance in training data.
problem Imbalance between treatment and control groups in training data.
method Combines distributionally robust optimization and weight regularization.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods in experiments.
Matrix completion is a modern missing data problem where both the missing structure and the underlying parameter are high dimensional. Although missing structure is a key component to any missing data problems, existing matrix completion methods often assume a simple uniform missing mechanism. In this work, we study ma…
We propose a predictive neural network architecture that can be utilized to update reference velocity models as inputs to the full waveform inversion. Deep learning models are explored to augment velocity model building workflows during processing the 3D seismic volume in salt-prone environments. Specifically, a neural…
PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.
problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.
MOCA uses modular attention to estimate causal effects from complex data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with complex, non-linear, and high-dimensional treatment and outcome mechanisms.
method MOCA is a transformer-based framework that separates treatment and outcome modeling through modular design and one-way attention mechanism, with cutting-feedback to prevent outcome influence on treatment representations.
result MOCA outperforms classical estimators and machine learning approaches across various simulated and real-world scenarios.
A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced by traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers, through constructing pro…
The use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) methods to estimate the causal effect of treatments from observational studies is widespread in econometrics, medicine and social sciences. Although these studies often involve sensitive information, thus far there has been no work on privacy-preserving IPW methods. We add…
We present a growing dimension asymptotic formalism. The perspective in this paper is classification theory and we show that it can accommodate probabilistic networks classifiers, including naive Bayes model and its augmented version. When represented as a Bayesian network these classifiers have an important advantage:…
Develops a method to estimate personalized treatment regimes from summary statistics.
problem Estimating optimal treatment regimes for a target population when individual-level data is unavailable.
method A weighting framework that tailors a treatment regime for the target population using summary statistics.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for optimal treatment regimes.
New estimator for causal effects in large datasets.
problem Unobserved confounding in large-scale data.
method Doubly robust estimator combining imputation, IPW, and cross-fitting.
result Error converges to Gaussian distribution at parametric rate.
FIDDLE uses deep learning to estimate ATE from complex data.
problem Estimating ATE from high-dimensional, correlated covariates with sparse nonlinear effects.
method Factor-augmented deep learning for propensity and outcome models.
result FIDDLE consistently estimates ATE under model misspecification and is semiparametrically efficient.
Active inference framework improves U-statistic estimation efficiency.
problem Costly acquisition of labels for U-statistics. method Active inference framework with optimal sampling rule.
result Substantial gains in estimation efficiency over baseline methods.
EASE estimator improves probabilistic value estimation efficiency.
problem Efficiently estimating probabilistic values like Shapley and semivalues.
method Developed an Efficiency-Aware Surrogate-adjusted Estimator (EASE) that minimizes first-order mean squared error.
result EASE consistently outperforms existing estimators for various probabilistic values.
Proposes a method to estimate causal effects of continuous treatments using instrumental variables.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
method Introduces a novel framework using instrumental variables and a uniform regular weighting function to identify and estimate average dose-response functions.
result Establishes the asymptotic properties of the proposed methods for estimating average dose-response functions.
The paper integrates behavioral distortions into portfolio optimization using implied probability weighting functions.
problem Behavioral distortions in probability weighting affect portfolio optimization under different return distributions.
method Developed a unified framework to extract probability weighting functions from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and NIG distributions.
result Increasing tail fatness amplifies behavioral distortions, and shifts in risk-free rates alter the curvature of these distortions.
This paper proposes Dirichlet Variational Autoencoder (DirVAE) using a Dirichlet prior for a continuous latent variable that exhibits the characteristic of the categorical probabilities. To infer the parameters of DirVAE, we utilize the stochastic gradient method by approximating the Gamma distribution, which is a comp…
Method learns optimal treatment sequences from observational data.
problem Optimal dynamic treatment regimes for public policies and medical interventions.
method Doubly robust classification-based approach via backward induction.
result Achieves optimal convergence rate of n^(-1/2) for welfare regret.
Physics-consistent method improves seismic inversion accuracy.
problem Challenges in seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) due to ill-posedness and high cost.
method Hybrid approach combining physics-based models with data-driven methodologies, incorporating physics into data augmentation.
result Physics-consistent data-driven inversion yields higher accuracy and better generalization.
Study best arm identification with contextual info, achieving optimal misidentification probability.
problem Identify the best treatment arm with minimal misidentification probability in a small gap scenario.
method Developed RS-AIPW strategy that matches lower bound of misidentification probability in the small-gap regime.
result RS-AIPW strategy is asymptotically optimal for best arm identification.
Estimates LATE using combined datasets, overcoming data limitations.
problem Estimating LATE when compliance is incomplete and data is split.
method Combines separately observed datasets to estimate LATE using direct and weighted least squares methods.
result Proposes a stable and practical estimator for LATE.
Inverse classification uses an induced classifier as a queryable oracle to guide test instances towards a preferred posterior class label. The result produced from the process is a set of instance-specific feature perturbations, or recommendations, that optimally improve the probability of the class label. In this work…
Robust variable selection for high-dimensional data with missing and measurement errors.
problem Missing data and measurement errors confound data distribution.
method Exponential loss function with inverse probability weighting and additive error models.
result The Atan punishment method improves robust variable selection.
Paper tackles informative labels in semi-supervised learning, proposing debiasing methods.
problem Informative labels can bias semi-supervised learning models, especially when some classes are more likely to be labeled.
method Estimates missing-data mechanism and uses inverse propensity weighting to debias SSL algorithms.
result Proposed methods improve SSL performance, demonstrated on various datasets including medical ones.
A study on optimizing data augmentation weights for improved test-time predictions.
problem Improving robustness of predictions during testing with data augmentation methods.
method A weighted Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) approach based on variational Bayesian framework to optimize weights.
result Optimizing weights suppresses unwanted data augmentations and improves prediction performance.
In this paper we show how to augment classical methods for inverse problems with artificial neural networks. The neural network acts as a prior for the coefficient to be estimated from noisy data. Neural networks are global, smooth function approximators and as such they do not require explicit regularization of the er…
Proposes DSW for unbiased ITE estimation with dynamic confounders.
problem Estimating ITE from dynamic observational data with time-varying confounders.
method Deep Sequential Weighting (DSW) infers hidden confounders using current treatment assignments and historical information.
result DSW generates unbiased and accurate treatment effects.
ARGEW improves node embeddings for weighted homophilous graphs by emphasizing strong edge weights.
problem Lack of accurate node embeddings for weighted homophilous graphs.
method ARGEW (Augmentation of Random walks by Graph Edge Weights) augments random walks by emphasizing nodes with larger edge weights.
result ARGEW produces embeddings where node pairs with strong edge weights have closer embeddings.
The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
The paper studies OPE with missing data, showing bias under nonignorable missingness and proposing a solution.
problem Estimating value of a target policy from logged data with missingness.
method Investigates OPE with monotone missingness, proposes an IPW value estimator, and conducts statistical inference.
result Value estimates remain unbiased under ignorable missingness but can be biased under nonignorable missingness.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
Novel characterization of augmented balancing weights combining outcome and weighting models.
problem Improving estimation accuracy in machine learning models with balancing weights.
method Characterization of augmented balancing weights as linear models, extending to ridge and lasso regression.
result Equivalence and closed-form expressions for specific model choices, providing insights into performance.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.