arXiv research

In this paper we examine the process involved in the design and implementation of a port-graph model to be used for the analysis of an agent-based rational negligence model. Rational negligence describes the phenomenon that occurred during the financial crisis of 2008 whereby investors chose to trade asset-backed secur…

A new mathematical framework simplifies securitization structuring.

A repurchase agreement lets investors borrow cash to buy securities. Financier only lends to securities' market value after a haircut and charges interest. Repo pricing is characterized with its puzzling dual pricing measures: repo haircut and repo spread. This article develops a repo haircut model by designing haircut…

Current auto loans converge to super-prime credit despite remaining underwater.

This study examines whether tokenized assets improve liquidity and finds significant differences across categories.

Study shows SEC crypto classification led to significant market reactions.

The authors examine the concept of probability of default for asset-backed loans. In contrast to unsecured loans it is shown that probability of default can be defined as either a measure of the likelihood of the borrower failing to make required payments, or as the likelihood of an insufficiency of collateral value on…

We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have exponential utility functions and the individual endowments are spanned by the securities…

Study of a risk-averse informed trader in a multi-asset market with non-Gaussian prices.

The paper studies derivative asset analysis in structural credit risk models where the asset value of the firm is not fully observable. It is shown that in order to compute the price dynamics of traded securities one needs to solve a stochastic filtering problem for the asset value. We transform this problem to a filte…

Study asset pricing under model uncertainty with discrete time and states.

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative meas…

A one-factor asset pricing model with an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process as its state variable is studied under partial information: the mean-reverting level and the mean-reverting speed parameters are modeled as hidden/unobservable stochastic variables. No-arbitrage pricing formulas for derivative securities written on a …

This study compares CeFi and DeFi, finding some DeFi assets are not truly decentralized.

The DAO Report led to a significant shift of ICO activity to Europe.

We propose a modelling framework for the optimal selection of crypto assets. Crypto assets differ by two essential features: security (technological) and stability (governance). Investors make choices over crypto assets similarly to how they make choices by using a recommender app: the app presents each investor with a…

Study assesses risks of European Safe Bonds using credit risk models.

A simple statement and accessible proof of a version of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in discrete time is provided. Careful distinction is made between prices and cash flows in order to provide uniform treatment of all instruments. There is no need for a ``real-world'' measure in order to specify a model for…

Develops a framework for optimal investment in assets with different liquidity constraints.

We present a detailed study of the performance of a trading rule that uses moving average of past returns to predict future returns on stock indexes. Our main goal is to link performance and the stochastic process of the traded asset. Our study reports short, medium and long term effects by looking at the Sharpe ratio …

We propose the development of a prediction market for forecasting prices for "toxic assets" to be transferred from Irish banks to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). Such a market allows market participants to assume a stake in a security whose value is tied to a future event. We propose that securities are cr…

This paper explores portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta.

The classical linear Black--Scholes model for pricing derivative securities is a popular model in financial industry. It relies on several restrictive assumptions such as completeness, and frictionless of the market as well as the assumption on the underlying asset price dynamics following a geometric Brownian motion. …

A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.

HyFi cryptocurrencies backed by institutions show lower price risk than fully decentralized ones.

We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on their "distance" to a reference local volatility model. In the limit for small unce…

Stablecoins are reshaping global monetary systems, offering hybrid structures with public and private monies.

We consider the problem of identifying current coupons for Agency backed To-be-Announced (TBA) Mortgage Backed Securities. In a doubly stochastic factor based model which allows for prepayment intensities to depend upon current and origination mortgage rates, as well as underlying investment factors, we identify the cu…

A strategy to beat benchmarks by investing in heavily shorted but fundamentally sound securities.

A machine learning model improves relative valuation of municipal bonds.

The paper proposes a new algorithm for the high-dimensional financial data -- the Groupwise Interpretable Basis Selection (GIBS) algorithm, to estimate a new Adaptive Multi-Factor (AMF) asset pricing model, implied by the recently developed Generalized Arbitrage Pricing Theory, which relaxes the convention that the num…

We prove a version of First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under transaction costs for discrete-time markets with dividend-paying securities. Specifically, we show that the no-arbitrage condition under the efficient friction assumption is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral measure. We derive dual repre…

In machine learning (ML) security, attacks like evasion, model stealing or membership inference are generally studied in individually. Previous work has also shown a relationship between some attacks and decision function curvature of the targeted model. Consequently, we study an ML model allowing direct control over t…

To be prepared against cyberattacks, most organizations resort to security information and event management systems to monitor their infrastructures. These systems depend on the timeliness and relevance of the latest updates, patches and threats provided by cyberthreat intelligence feeds. Open source intelligence platf…

Recent changes to greenhouse gas emission policies are catalyzing the electric vehicle (EV) market making it readily accessible to consumers. While there are challenges that arise with dense deployment of EVs, one of the major future concerns is cyber security threat. In this paper, cyber security threats in the form o…

A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.

We study a portfolio selection problem in a continuous-time Itô-Markov additive market with prices of financial assets described by Markov additive processes which combine Lévy processes and regime switching models. Thus the model takes into account two sources of risk: the jump diffusion risk and the regime switching …

We consider a financial market in which two securities are traded: a stock and an index. Their prices are assumed to satisfy the Black-Scholes model. Besides assuming that the index is a tradable security, we also assume that it is efficient, in the following sense: we do not expect a prespecified self-financing tradin…

The principal portfolios of the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are analyzed and found to have remarkable hedging and leveraging properties. Principal portfolios implement a recasting of any correlated asset set of N risky securities into an equivalent but uncorrelated set when short sales are allowed. Whil…

Paper proposes a new method to compute cryptocurrency prices securely.

Decentralized finance uses blockchain for $70B in assets, differing from traditional finance.

In this paper incomplete-information models are developed for the pricing of securities in a stochastic interest rate setting. In particular we consider credit-risky assets that may include random recovery upon default. The market filtration is generated by a collection of information processes associated with economic…

Study risk-averse insider's behavior in dynamic signal asset pricing.

We derive formulas for the performance of capital assets in continuous time from an efficient market hypothesis, with no stochastic assumptions and no assumptions about the beliefs or preferences of investors. Our efficient market hypothesis says that a speculator with limited means cannot beat a particular index by a …

Compound Finance optimizes risk metrics for V3 protocol using Chainrisk simulations.

This study examines the execution phase of corporate share buy-backs, highlighting inefficiencies and costs.

The standard asset pricing models (the CCAPM and the Epstein-Zin non-expected utility model) counterintuitively predict that equilibrium asset prices can rise if the representative agent's risk aversion increases. If the income effect, which implies enhanced saving as a result of an increase in risk aversion, dominates…

Framework for responsible LLM deployment with human involvement and decentralized technologies.