The Lugannani-Rice formula is a saddlepoint approximation method for estimating the tail probability distribution function, which was originally studied for the sum of independent identically distributed random variables. Because of its tractability, the formula is now widely used in practical financial engineering as …
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “Approximate random variables”
Two ANOVA-based algorithms boost random Fourier feature models for function approximation.
problem Approximating high-dimensional functions with low-order interactions.
method Utilizes ANOVA decomposition to learn low-order functions and index sets of important variables.
result Significantly reduces approximation error compared to existing methods.
Efficient algorithm approximates discrete random variables with minimal Kolmogorov distance.
problem Estimating the probability of missing deadlines in series-parallel schedules.
method An efficient algorithm that computes a random variable with minimal Kolmogorov distance to a given discrete random variable.
result The algorithm efficiently approximates the probability of missing deadlines with minimal Kolmogorov distance.
Paper introduces new approximations for lognormal sums, matching comonotonicity and moments.
problem Approximating sums of lognormal random variables accurately.
method Introduces new approximations based on weighted distribution theory, emphasizing comonotonicity and moment matching.
result Approximations perform better than classical methods, especially in the right tail of the distribution.
A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations are obtained both when the number of terms in the sum is deterministic and when it…
Lognormal random variables appear naturally in many engineering disciplines, including wireless communications, reliability theory, and finance. So, too, does the sum of (correlated) lognormal random variables. Unfortunately, no closed form probability distribution exists for such a sum, and it requires approximation. …
Designs efficient algorithms to maximize the expectation of Gaussian random variables.
problem Maximizing the expectation of the supremum of Gaussian random variables.
method Polynomial time approximation scheme and approximation algorithm for general .
result Characterizes optimal variance allocation and provides approximation algorithms.
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
problem Uncertainty in predicting macroeconomic variables like prices and returns.
method Defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on forecast accuracy based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Accuracy of forecasts of probabilities of macroeconomic variables doesn't exceed Gaussian approximations.
Paper generalizes tensor-train approximation for complex random variables.
problem Characterizing intractable high-dimensional random variables.
method Extends inverse Rosenblatt transform to general reference measures and integrates into deep variable transformation framework.
result Deep inverse Rosenblatt transport significantly expands tensor approximations for complex random variables.
The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random…
New framework reduces cost of financial option pricing simulations on FPGAs.
problem Efficiently simulate financial option pricing with reduced computational cost.
method Nested MLMC framework with low precision calculations on FPGAs.
result Higher computational savings compared to existing mixed-precision MLMC frameworks.
We derive new approximations for the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall at high levels of loss distributions with positive skewness and excess kurtosis, and we describe their precisions for notable ones such as for exponential, Pareto type I, lognormal and compound (Poisson) distributions. Our approximations are …
In the study of investment problem, aside from the investment risk the background risk appears. Both the investment risk and the background risk are probabilistically described by random variables. This paper starts from the hypothesis that the two types of risk can be represented both probabilistically (by random vari…
Chernoff Bounds for Tensor Expanders on Riemannian Manifolds Using Graph Laplacian Approximationmath.PR
Paper extends tail bounds to high-dimensional random objects on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Need for tail bounds in high-dimensional data.
method Random walks on graph approximating the manifold, ensuring spectral similarity.
result Derived tensor Chernoff bound for Riemannian manifolds.
Bayesian non-linear latent variable modeling for complex data.
problem Inference for GPLVMs is computationally limited and often leads to overfitting or underestimates uncertainty.
method Approximate Gaussian process mappings with random Fourier features for MCMC inference.
result Generalized RFLVMs perform well on various data types and applications.
New sampling method for Heston model reduces complexity.
problem Efficient sampling for Heston model's time integrated variance.
method Series expansion, change of measure, Chebyshev polynomial approximations.
result Strong, efficient sampling scheme established for Heston model.
We show that the auxiliary variable method (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for inference of Markov random fields can be viewed as an approximate Bayesian computation method for likelihood estimation.
Paper develops polynomial approximations for complex probability densities.
problem Approximating high-dimensional concentrated probability densities.
method Tensor-product spectral polynomials and KR rearrangements.
result Efficient approximation of complex densities using composite maps.
Develops a new method for nonlinear dimension reduction using random features.
problem Statistical challenges in generalizing Gaussian process-based latent variable models to non-Gaussian data.
method Random feature latent variable models (RFLVMs) that approximate nonlinear relationships with linear functions of random features.
result RFLVMs produce comparable results to state-of-the-art methods on various data types.
We study the problem of recovering the latent ground truth labeling of a structured instance with categorical random variables in the presence of noisy observations. We present a new approximate algorithm for graphs with categorical variables that achieves low Hamming error in the presence of noisy vertex and edge obse…
In this note we present a generative model of natural images consisting of a deep hierarchy of layers of latent random variables, each of which follows a new type of distribution that we call rectified Gaussian. These rectified Gaussian units allow spike-and-slab type sparsity, while retaining the differentiability nec…
Random feature models approximate functions in Banach spaces efficiently.
problem Approximating functions in Banach spaces efficiently.
method Randomly initialized feature maps and linear readout training.
result Universal approximation in Bochner spaces for Banach space-valued models.
Bayesian non-parametric model selects latent dimensions automatically.
problem Non-linear, sparse latent variable selection.
method Indian buffet process prior, random Fourier approximation, MCMC sampling.
result Superior performance on synthetic, biological, and text datasets.
Efficiently learns and transports posterior densities for real-time inference.
problem High computational cost of Bayesian inference for complex posterior densities.
method Tensor-train (TT) format for offline learning, conditional transport for online inference.
result Significant improvement in inference performance for high-dimensional problems.
Given a Gaussian Markov random field, we consider the problem of selecting a subset of variables to observe which minimizes the total expected squared prediction error of the unobserved variables. We first show that finding an exact solution is NP-hard even for a restricted class of Gaussian Markov random fields, calle…
Dependence bounds for the difference of stop-loss payoffs on the difference of two random variablesq-fin.PR
The paper examines bounds for stop-loss payoffs using transformed random variables.
problem Bounding stop-loss payoffs for a difference of two random variables.
method Analyzes crossing points of cdfs of original and transformed random variables.
result Unique pairwise crossing points for mortality-linked securities under symmetric copulas.
We prove a novel result wherein the density function of the gradients---corresponding to density function of the derivatives in one dimension---of a thrice differentiable function S (obtained via a random variable transformation of a uniformly distributed random variable) defined on a closed, bounded interval Ω\subset …
Standard sparse pseudo-input approximations to the Gaussian process (GP) cannot handle complex functions well. Sparse spectrum alternatives attempt to answer this but are known to over-fit. We suggest the use of variational inference for the sparse spectrum approximation to avoid both issues. We model the covariance fu…
Study on volumes of random inscribed polytopes in projective geometries.
problem Estimating volumes of random inscribed polytopes in projective geometries.
method Central limit theorems and normal approximation for volumes and dual volumes of random inscribed polytopes.
result Established central limit theorems and normal approximation for volumes and dual volumes of random inscribed polytopes.
Gradient density estimation in arbitrary finite dimensions using the method of stationary phasestat.ML
We prove that the density function of the gradient of a sufficiently smooth function , obtained via a random variable transformation of a uniformly distributed random variable, is increasingly closely approximated by the normalized power spectrum of $φ=\exp\left(\frac{i…
Computation of moments of transformed random variables is a problem appearing in many engineering applications. The current methods for moment transformation are mostly based on the classical quadrature rules which cannot account for the approximation errors. Our aim is to design a method for moment transformation for …
VIDON learns operators with variable sensors, overcoming sensor limitations.
problem Fixed sensor locations restrict operator learning applicability.
method Variable-Input Deep Operator Network (VIDON) with random, varying sensors.
result VIDON efficiently approximates operators in PDEs and is robust to sensor permutations.
Learning Planar Ising Modelsstat.ML
Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of …
We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors…
Classical Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approximates data in terms of projections on a small number of orthogonal vectors. There are simple procedures to efficiently compute various functions of the data from the PCA approximation. The most important function is arguably the Euclidean distance between data items, …
We improve Gaussian copula models for imputing mixed data types with precise approximations.
problem Imputing missing values with mixed data types in surveys and medical applications.
method We use randomized quasi-Monte Carlo procedures for direct and arbitrarily precise approximations of model estimation and imputation.
result Our method yields lower errors for model parameters and imputed values compared to existing methods.
Learning Planar Ising Modelsstat.ML
Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of …
The paper extends risk measures to two-step approximations and studies log-concave distributions.
problem Extending classical risk measures to two-step approximations.
method Optimization problem for determining optimal regime thresholds and values for log-concave distributions.
result Conditions for the uniqueness of regime changing in log-concave distributions.
In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger c…
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
The covariance matrix of a -dimensional random variable is a fundamental quantity in data analysis. Given i.i.d. observations, it is typically estimated by the sample covariance matrix, at a computational cost of operations. When are large, this computation may be prohibitively slow. Moreover, …
Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation methods.
problem Establishing bounds on the deviation of stochastic approximation methods.
method Martingale approximation method for separately Lipschitz functions.
result Established various deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging and minimization.
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.
Study critical exponents on hyperbolic surfaces with long boundaries using Weil-Petersson measures.
problem Analyzing critical exponents on hyperbolic surfaces with long boundaries.
method Using spine graph construction and comparing normalized Weil-Petersson and Kontsevich measures.
result Asymptotic convergence-in-mean result of normalized Weil-Petersson measures to normalized Kontsevich measures.
A new algorithm approximates logistic regression probabilities efficiently.
problem Efficiently approximating probabilities in logistic regression for large datasets.
method Randomized sampling-based algorithm with leverage scores.
result Accurate approximations to estimated probabilities with smaller sample sizes.
Quantum algorithm estimates mean with sub-Gaussian error.
problem Estimating mean of quantum-computed random variables.
method Quantum mean estimation algorithm with sub-Gaussian error rate.
result Achieves nearly-optimal quadratic speedup over classical methods.
We describe a simple and efficient procedure for approximating the Lévy measure of a random variable. We use this approximation to derive a finite sum-representation that converges almost surely to Ferguson's representation of the Dirichlet process based on arrivals of a homogeneous Poisson process.…
Proposes VAE-KRnet for density estimation and variational Bayes.
problem Challenges of density estimation and posterior approximation in high dimensions.
method Combines VAE and KRnet for density estimation, incorporating mutual information maximization.
result Improves posterior approximation in high-dimensional cases.