A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Neural network model predicts alternating event-free periods.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
Modern health data science applications leverage abundant molecular and electronic health data, providing opportunities for machine learning to build statistical models to support clinical practice. Time-to-event analysis, also called survival analysis, stands as one of the most representative examples of such statisti…
In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display advertising as well as Real-Time Bidding (RTB). In this work, we introduce an enhanced …
UNHaP removes noise from physiological events using Hawkes processes.
Financial event studies often misestimate causal effects due to misspecified factor models.
We present a theoretical framework of probabilistic learning derived by Maximum Probability (MP) Theorem shown in the current paper. In this probabilistic framework, a model is defined as an event in the probability space, and a model or the associated event -- either the true underlying model or the parameterized mode…
Efficient event generation for collider phenomenology using parallel Langevin sampling and learned Stein diagnostics.
Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeling. However, these methods have shortcomings that make them unsuitable for rapid detection of locally emerging events on massive text streams. We describe Spatially Compact Semantic Scan (SCSS) that has been developed specif…
In this paper we seek methods to effectively detect urban micro-events. Urban micro-events are events which occur in cities, have limited geographical coverage and typically affect only a small group of citizens. Because of their scale these are difficult to identify in most data sources. However, by using citizen sens…
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty…
Real-time event detection using human sensor data and adaptive machine learning.
Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical verification methods tailored for extreme events, such as thresholded and weighted …
Proposes a method to improve rare event prediction in healthcare.
Adaptive Multilevel Splitting improves rare event pricing for financial derivatives.
Generates synthetic health data from patient visits.
Meta-learning improves event prediction from short sequences.
Develops FSC for maxima nominated samples, improving classification in rare-event data.
The committor function is a central object of study in understanding transitions between metastable states in complex systems. However, computing the committor function for realistic systems at low temperatures is a challenging task, due to the curse of dimensionality and the scarcity of transition data. In this paper,…
Proposes a neural LOB model for market-making.
Early detection and precise characterization of emerging topics in text streams can be highly useful in applications such as timely and targeted public health interventions and discovering evolving regional business trends. Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeli…
The design of a reward function often poses a major practical challenge to real-world applications of reinforcement learning. Approaches such as inverse reinforcement learning attempt to overcome this challenge, but require expert demonstrations, which can be difficult or expensive to obtain in practice. We propose var…
A cornerstone of human statistical learning is the ability to extract temporal regularities / patterns from random sequences. Here we present a method of computing pattern time statistics with generating functions for first-order Markov trials and independent Bernoulli trials. We show that the pattern time statistics c…
New framework detects time-varying economic persistence.
Paper uncovers causal structures in Hawkes processes with latent subprocesses.
Market impact is a key concept in the study of financial markets and several models have been proposed in the literature so far. The Transient Impact Model (TIM) posits that the price at high frequency time scales is a linear combination of the signs of the past executed market orders, weighted by a so-called propagato…
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we propose a general account for finding the optimal tilting measure. To this end, when …
This paper introduces the factorial marked temporal point process model and presents efficient learning methods. In conventional (multi-dimensional) marked temporal point process models, event is often encoded by a single discrete variable i.e. a marker. In this paper, we describe the factorial marked point processes w…
Unified framework for counterfactual survival analysis improves treatment effect estimation.
This paper is dedicated to the consistency of systemic risk measures with respect to stochastic dependence. It compares two alternative notions of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) available in the current literature. These notions are both based on the conditional distribution of a random variable Y given a stress eve…
FSD50K provides an open dataset of over 51k audio clips for sound event recognition.
A new framework uses stochastic optimal control to estimate rare events more accurately.
The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.
Neural network predicts cardiovascular events from EHRs with high accuracy.
There are (at least) three approaches to quantifying information. The first, algorithmic information or Kolmogorov complexity, takes events as strings and, given a universal Turing machine, quantifies the information content of a string as the length of the shortest program producing it. The second, Shannon information…
Clinical notes are a rich source of information about patient state. However, using them to predict clinical events with machine learning models is challenging. They are very high dimensional, sparse and have complex structure. Furthermore, training data is often scarce because it is expensive to obtain reliable labels…
We redefine SICR-events for better loan classification under IFRS 9.
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
Recently, self-supervised learning has proved to be effective to learn representations of events suitable for temporal segmentation in image sequences, where events are understood as sets of temporally adjacent images that are semantically perceived as a whole. However, although this approach does not require expensive…
In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a sequence of noisy time stamps corresponding to the occurrence of positive class e…
In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In order to reduce the number of computer experiments, many other approaches known as …
Reconstructing the position of an interaction for any dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with the best precision is key to directly detecting Dark Matter. Using the likelihood-free framework, a new algorithm to reconstruct the 2-D (x; y) position and the size of the charge signal (e) of an interaction is presente…
New algorithm speeds up MCMC for complex distributions.
Spiking neuronal networks are usually simulated with three main simulation schemes: the classical time-driven and event-driven schemes, and the more recent hybrid scheme. All three schemes evolve the state of a neuron through a series of checkpoints: equally spaced in the first scheme and determined neuron-wise by spik…
Alternative wavelet analysis method for financial signals.
Bayesian optimisation has been successfully applied to a variety of reinforcement learning problems. However, the traditional approach for learning optimal policies in simulators does not utilise the opportunity to improve learning by adjusting certain environment variables: state features that are unobservable and ran…
Gatherings of thousands to millions of people frequently occur for an enormous variety of events, and automated counting of these high-density crowds is useful for safety, management, and measuring significance of an event. In this work, we show that the regularly accepted labeling scheme of crowd density maps for trai…
We propose a simple but efficient method termed Guided Learning for weakly-labeled semi-supervised sound event detection (SED). There are two sub-targets implied in weakly-labeled SED: audio tagging and boundary detection. Instead of designing a single model by considering a trade-off between the two sub-targets, we de…