AlphaCFG discovers alpha factors using grammar-guided search.
problem Discovering formulaic alpha factors in finance.
method AlphaCFG uses a grammar-based framework to define and discover alpha factors with syntactic and semantic constraints.
result AlphaCFG outperforms state-of-the-art methods in trading profitability and efficiency.
Enhances genetic programming for stock alpha discovery with warm start and structural constraints.
problem Overwhelming search space and computational burden in traditional genetic programming for alpha factor discovery.
method Proposes a new GP framework with warm start and structural constraints to enhance search performance and interpretability.
result Superior out-of-sample prediction results and higher portfolio returns compared to benchmarks.
AES uses α-divergence to select informative points for BO, improving optimization performance.
problem Optimizing complex functions with limited evaluations.
method AES uses α-divergence to select points based on dependency with global maximum.
result AES outperforms other information-based acquisition functions in various experiments.
Alpha2 discovers logical formulaic alphas using deep reinforcement learning.
problem Discovering interpretable formulaic alphas for better trading strategies.
method Formulating alpha discovery as program construction, using deep reinforcement learning to navigate the search space.
result Empirical experiments show Alpha2 identifies diverse, logical, and effective alphas improving trading strategy performance.
RiskMiner discovers formulaic alphas using MCTS for better performance.
problem Mining formulaic alphas without considering structural information and alpha correlations.
method Formulates alpha mining as an MDP and solves it with a risk-seeking MCTS.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks and achieves the most profitable results.
The multi-factor model is a widely used model in quantitative investment. The success of a multi-factor model is largely determined by the effectiveness of the alpha factors used in the model. This paper proposes a new evolutionary algorithm called AutoAlpha to automatically generate effective formulaic alphas from mas…
Alpha-GPT mines new trading signals with human-AI interaction.
problem Mining new alphas for effective trading signals.
method Human-AI interaction and prompt engineering algorithmic framework.
result Demonstrates Alpha-GPT's effectiveness in generating creative, insightful, and effective alphas.
A core novelty of Alpha Zero is the interleaving of tree search and deep learning, which has proven very successful in board games like Chess, Shogi and Go. These games have a discrete action space. However, many real-world reinforcement learning domains have continuous action spaces, for example in robotic control, na…
We investigate a new geometric flow which consists of a coupled system of the Ricci flow on a closed manifold M with the harmonic map flow of a map phi from M to some closed target manifold N with a (possibly time-dependent) positive coupling constant alpha. This system can be interpreted as the gradient flow of an ene…
In these notes we discuss investment allocation to multiple alpha streams traded on the same execution platform, including when trades are crossed internally resulting in turnover reduction. We discuss approaches to alpha weight optimization where one maximizes P&L subject to bounds on volatility (or Sharpe ratio). The…
Paper proposes a new framework to mine synergistic formulaic alphas for better stock trend forecasting.
problem Mining alphas separately ignores their combined performance, leading to suboptimal models.
method Proposes a reinforcement learning-based framework that optimizes the mining of synergistic formulaic alpha sets.
result Demonstrates higher returns in stock trend forecasting compared to previous approaches.
AlphaNet improves supernets training with alpha-divergence.
problem Improving the uncertainty distillation in weight-sharing NAS.
method Proposes alpha-divergence for better uncertainty distillation in supernets.
result Significant improvements in model performance across various FLOPs regimes.
FactorMiner discovers financial alpha factors with low redundancy.
problem Finding novel financial alpha factors in a vast search space.
method Modular Skill Architecture and Experience Memory to distill and guide exploration.
result FactorMiner constructs a diverse library of high-quality factors with competitive performance.
EFS uses LLMs to optimize sparse portfolios by evolving alpha factors.
problem Sparse portfolio optimization in dynamic market regimes.
method Evolutionary feedback loop with LLM-generated alpha factors.
result Significantly outperforms baselines in diverse datasets.
VES-Gamma adapts EI using information-theoretic principles.
problem Optimizing black-box functions using Bayesian optimization.
method Variational Entropy Search (VES) and VES-Gamma algorithm.
result VES-Gamma improves EI by incorporating information-theoretic concepts.
JES optimizes expensive functions by considering joint entropy over input and output spaces.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with limited evaluations.
method Joint Entropy Search (JES) considers joint entropy over input and output spaces.
result JES outperforms other information-theoretic methods in Bayesian optimization.
Entropy Search (ES) and Predictive Entropy Search (PES) are popular and empirically successful Bayesian Optimization techniques. Both rely on a compelling information-theoretic motivation, and maximize the information gained about the argmax of the unknown function; yet, both are plagued by the expensive computatio…
Paper proposes a new REINFORCE algorithm for mining formulaic alpha factors with reduced variance.
problem Mining formulaic alpha factors with interpretability and robustness in volatile markets.
method Developed a novel REINFORCE algorithm with a dedicated baseline and reward shaping.
result Boosts correlation with returns by 3.83% and enhances excess returns compared to existing methods.
The scientific method relies on the iterated processes of inference and inquiry. The inference phase consists of selecting the most probable models based on the available data; whereas the inquiry phase consists of using what is known about the models to select the most relevant experiment. Optimizing inquiry involves …
Paper proposes a policy-search algorithm to learn entropy-maximizing exploration policies in reward-free environments.
problem Reward-free learning in high-dimensional, continuous-control domains.
method Maximum Entropy POLicy optimization (MEPOL) algorithm that maximizes a non-parametric state entropy estimate.
result MEPOL learns a maximum-entropy exploration policy that facilitates learning various reward-based tasks.
Unified framework connects EI and information-theoretic acquisition functions.
problem Distinguish between Expected Improvement and information-theoretic acquisition functions.
method Introduces Variational Entropy Search (VES) to unify EI and information-theoretic approaches.
result EI can be seen as a variational inference approximation of Max-value Entropy Search (MES).
This paper studies an entropy-based multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MBO). The entropy search is successful approach to Bayesian optimization. However, for MBO, existing entropy-based methods ignore trade-off among objectives or introduce unreliable approximations. We propose a novel entropy-based MBO called Pare…
QuantaAlpha uses evolutionary algorithms to mine financial alpha robustly across market distributions.
problem Challenges in alpha mining due to market noise and regime shifts.
method Evolutionary framework treating each mining run as a trajectory, mutation, crossover, targeted revision, and reuse of effective patterns.
result Consistent gains over strong baselines and prior systems, achieving high IC and ARR.
AI predicts stock winners with 2.43 Sharpe ratio, but returns are highly concentrated.
problem Predicting stock returns with AI, focusing on identifying top winners.
method Deployed a state-of-the-art LLM to autonomously search the web for stock attractiveness, avoiding look-ahead bias.
result AI can generate alpha by identifying top winners, but returns are highly concentrated.
LES optimizes designs by sampling descent sequences, achieving strong sample efficiency.
problem Optimizing large, complex design spaces is infeasible and unnecessary.
method LES uses Bayesian optimization to target solutions reachable by iterative optimizers.
result LES achieves strong sample efficiency compared to existing methods.
TLRS improves predictive power of mined formulaic alpha factors.
problem Sparse rewards in RL for mining formulaic alpha factors.
method Trajectory-level Reward Shaping (TLRS) with reward centering.
result TLRS boosts predictive power by 9.29% over existing methods.
A new algorithm learns MAGs from data more efficiently using entropy.
problem Learning MAGs from data is unstable and computationally expensive.
method Uses entropy estimation and refined Markov property to score MAGs.
result Algorithm is polynomial in number of nodes and outperforms existing methods.
Trust-region methods have yielded state-of-the-art results in policy search. A common approach is to use KL-divergence to bound the region of trust resulting in a natural gradient policy update. We show that the natural gradient and trust region optimization are equivalent if we use the natural parameterization of a st…
We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the global maximum. PES codifies this intractable acquisition function in terms of t…
Study improves policy search in continuous control by using heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Challenges in continuous space policy search due to non-convexity and myopic-farsighted incentives.
method Introduced heavy-tailed policy parameterizations and analyzed convergence rates and stability.
result Convergence rate to stationarity depends on policy's tail index and exploration tolerance.
RES improves robustness in Bayesian optimization.
problem Finding robust solutions in Bayesian optimization with adversarial perturbations.
method Robust Entropy Search (RES) acquisition function.
result RES reliably finds robust optima, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithms.
Contextual policy search allows adapting robotic movement primitives to different situations. For instance, a locomotion primitive might be adapted to different terrain inclinations or desired walking speeds. Such an adaptation is often achievable by modifying a small number of hyperparameters. However, learning, when …
This paper extends financial theory to measure learnable market structure under computational constraints.
problem Understanding learnable market structure under bounded computational capacity.
method Introduces financial epiplexity as a measure of learnable market structure, extending classical information theory.
result Proves that equal entropy does not imply equal epiplexity and derives thresholds for useful regimes.
A framework for efficient multi-objective optimization using entropy search.
problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions with multiple objectives.
method Output space entropy search (OSE) to minimize resource cost.
result Improves efficiency and accuracy in multi-objective optimization.
MESMOC optimizes constrained multi-objective problems efficiently.
problem Constrained multi-objective optimization with expensive function evaluations.
method Max-value Entropy Search in the output space.
result MESMOC selects high-quality Pareto solutions efficiently.
Improves neural network search in combinatorial spaces of mathematical symbols.
problem Early commitment and initialization bias limit exploration in neural network search.
method Entropy regularization and distribution initialization methods.
result Improves performance, increases sample efficiency, lowers solution complexity.
Improved MESMOC+ optimizes constrained multi-objective problems efficiently.
problem Optimizing constrained multi-objective problems with expensive evaluations.
method Minimizes entropy of Pareto frontier to guide search, using linear cost and decoupled evaluation.
result Significantly faster than alternatives, with more accurate entropy estimation.
A new acquisition function RMES improves Bayesian optimization performance.
problem Improper evaluation of mutual information in MES leads to suboptimal performance.
method Developed rectified MES (RMES) and used stochastic gradient ascent with reparameterization.
result RMES shows consistent improvement over MES in benchmarks and real-world problems.
DE-QT detects optimal Q-learning stopping points.
problem Information loss in Q-learning during prolonged training.
method Introducing DE-QT to detect entropy changes in Q-tables.
result DE-QT identifies the best stopping point for Q-learning.
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a model-based approach to sequentially optimize expensive black-box functions, such as the validation error of a deep neural network with respect to its hyperparameters. In many real-world scenarios, the optimization is further subject to a priori unknown constraints. For example, training…
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting expected returns for stocks from expected returns for alphas. Our algorithm altogether bypasses combining alphas with weights into "alpha combos". Simply put, we have developed a new method for trading alphas which does not involve combining them. This yields…
Alpha-R1 uses LLMs to reason about economic factors and news for better alpha screening.
problem Challenges in data-driven investment strategies due to signal decay and regime shifts.
method Reinforcement learning trained on 8B parameters to evaluate alpha relevance under changing market conditions.
result Empirically outperforms benchmark strategies and shows improved robustness to alpha decay.
We propose a framework for constructing factor models for alpha streams. Our motivation is threefold. 1) When the number of alphas is large, the sample covariance matrix is singular. 2) Its out-of-sample stability is challenging. 3) Optimization of investment allocation into alpha streams can be tractable for a factor …
An energy based approach for stabilizing a mechanical system has offered a simple yet powerful control scheme. However, since it does not impose such strong constraints on parameter space of the controller, finding appropriate parameter values for an optimal controller is known to be hard. This paper intends to generat…
We compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{FTSE100,+} and F{FTSE100,-} of the normalized positive and negative FTSE100 (UK) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled FTSE100 daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-r(t))^alpha that we call, aft…
This paper generalizes BO uncertainty measures using decision-theoretic entropies.
problem Efficiently inferring optima of expensive black-box functions.
method Introduces a generalized entropy measure from statistical decision theory to optimize Bayesian optimization.
result Demonstrates strong empirical performance across various sequential decision-making tasks.
In terms of the stock exchange returns, we compute the analytic expression of the probability distributions F{DAX,+} and F{DAX,-} of the normalized positive and negative DAX (Germany) index daily returns r(t). Furthermore, we define the alpha re-scaled DAX daily index positive returns r(t)^alpha and negative returns (-…
Alpha-GPT 2.0 integrates human insights into AI-driven investment research.
problem Efficiency and precision in quantitative investment research.
method Iterative Human-AI interaction using large language models.
result Enhanced efficiency and precision in quantitative investment research.