Bayesian classification improves with explicit aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of aleatoric uncertainty representation in Bayesian classification.
method Explicitly account for aleatoric uncertainty using a Dirichlet observation model.
result Explicit aleatoric uncertainty improves performance of Bayesian neural networks.
CLEAR calibrates both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for better predictive intervals.
problem Balanced uncertainty quantification for reliable predictive modeling.
method CLEAR uses two parameters, γ1 and γ2, to combine aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Clear achieves significant improvements in interval width and coverage.
New method improves estimation of neural network aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Existing methods overestimate aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
method Proposes a new de-noising method to estimate data uncertainty more accurately.
result Demonstrates better approximation of actual data uncertainty.
Bayesian method detects outliers and uncertain points in data.
problem Detecting outliers and uncertain points in data using Bayesian methods.
method Generative model of data curation for aleatoric uncertainty, combining with epistemic uncertainty and outlier exposure.
result Principled Bayesian approach outperforms methods using aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty alone.
New method uses generative models to estimate aleatoric uncertainty without strict data restrictions.
problem Estimating aleatoric uncertainty with limited data distribution or dimensionality.
method Conditional generative models and two metrics for measuring distributional discrepancies.
result Metrics accurately measure conditional distributional discrepancies and train competitive models.
Cooperative model disentangles data uncertainties.
problem Disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real-world data.
method Cooperatively trains a variance estimation network with a Bayesian neural network.
result Improves mean estimation and disentangles uncertainties.
Bayesian inference improves neural network predictions by separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of neural networks by quantifying and separating uncertainties.
method Approximated posterior distributions using deep ensembles for various neural network architectures.
result Prediction accuracy depends on both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, not just marginalized uncertainty.
We propose orthogonality as a necessary condition for disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
problem Jointly estimating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty is problematic and non-trivial.
method We propose orthogonality as a necessary condition for disentanglement and construct UDE to measure orthogonality and consistency.
result Orthogonality and consistency are necessary and sufficient criteria for disentanglement.
Improves image quality in generative models by estimating pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Lack of quantitative assessment of image quality in diffusion models.
method Estimate pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty during sampling phase using a perturbation scheme designed for diffusion models.
result Uncertainty-guided sampling leads to better sample generation quality as shown by FID scores.
CLAPS improves conformal regression by adaptively scaling interval widths based on last-layer Laplace uncertainty.
problem Lack of adaptive interval width scaling in conformal regression for heterogeneous inputs.
method CLAPS uses heteroscedastic last-layer Laplace uncertainty to adaptively scale interval widths, combining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result CLAPS provides competitive interval efficiency with nominal-level coverage, reducing to aleatoric scaling as epistemic uncertainty decreases.
The paper introduces new measures for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Uncertainty representation and quantification in machine learning.
method Proper scoring rules for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification.
result Established a natural bridge between credal set and second-order distribution representations of uncertainty.
JUCAL jointly calibrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in classifier ensembles.
problem Misrepresentation of predictive uncertainty due to unbalanced aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
method Joint Uncertainty Calibration (JUCAL) that jointly calibrates two constants to weight and scale uncertainties.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art calibration methods across various text classification tasks.
Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
problem Uncertainty modeling for dynamical systems
method Discussing sources of uncertainty, their nature, and task-specific objectives
result Identifying the types of uncertainty needed for dynamical systems
Novel method to quantify aleatoric uncertainty of treatment effects from observational data.
problem Understanding randomness in treatment effects for medical treatments.
method Partial identification and Neyman-orthogonality to quantify aleatoric uncertainty.
result Developed a novel orthogonal learner (AU-learner) for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty.
DER uses neural nets to better handle uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in safety-critical domains.
method Uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs) with evidential distributions.
result DER shows promise over traditional methods but is a heuristic.
Unified Bayesian framework for quantifying GNN uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in GNN predictions due to modeling errors and measurement uncertainty.
method Unified Bayesian framework with aleatoric uncertainty from probabilistic links and feature noise, and epistemic uncertainty from model parameter distribution. Uses Assumed Density Filtering for aleatoric uncertainty and Monte Carlo dropout for model parameter uncertainty.
result Bayesian model performs similarly to frequentist model and provides additional uncertainty information.
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems.
method Learning evidential distributions for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Allows for the simultaneous extraction of both uncertainties without sampling or out-of-distribution data.
A new method decomposes subjective risk into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in modeling decisions.
method Subjective risk decomposition using strictly proper loss.
result Recovery of classic uncertainty measures and new learning-theoretic connections.
Framework disentangles deep feature uncertainty for efficient inference.
problem Inference-time uncertainty estimation for reliable decision-making.
method Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Selection framework.
result Significantly tighter prediction intervals and 60% compute reduction.
Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
Contrastive learning recovers latent distributions for ambiguous inputs, including aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities, making the true posterior probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty.
method Extended InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions, proving they recover the correct posteriors, including aleatoric uncertainty.
result Contrastive learning encoders can recover the correct posteriors of data-generating processes, including aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space.
Supporting model interpretability for complex phenomena where annotators can legitimately disagree, such as emotion recognition, is a challenging machine learning task. In this work, we show that explicitly quantifying the uncertainty in such settings has interpretability benefits. We use a simple modification of a cla…
Various strategies for active learning have been proposed in the machine learning literature. In uncertainty sampling, which is among the most popular approaches, the active learner sequentially queries the label of those instances for which its current prediction is maximally uncertain. The predictions as well as the …
Enhances reinforcement learning uncertainty estimation with a generalized Gaussian error model.
problem Inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation in conventional uncertainty-aware TD learning.
method Introduces a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, incorporating higher-order moments, particularly kurtosis, to improve uncertainty estimation and mitigation.
result Significant performance gains in policy gradient algorithms with the proposed framework.
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.
Method provides formal guarantees for decomposing model uncertainty.
problem Decomposing model uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components.
method Higher-order calibration using k-snapshots.
result Formal guarantees for aleatoric uncertainty matching real-world distribution.
Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In particular, the idea of distinguishing between two importan…
Isotonic regression binning affects calibration statistics of machine learning models.
problem Isotonic regression binning introduces aleatoric uncertainty in calibration statistics.
method Calibration error statistics are recalibrated using isotonic regression, which produces stratified uncertainties.
result Stratified uncertainties lead to significant differences in bin-based calibration statistics.
PNNs model aleatoric uncertainty in scientific machine learning with high accuracy.
problem Aleatoric uncertainty in scientific systems with unequal variance.
method Developed a probabilistic distance metric to optimize PNN architecture and used it in material science applications.
result PNNs yield remarkably accurate output mean estimates and high correlation in predicted intervals.
Decoupled PFNs improve sequential decision-making by separating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Sequential decision-making requires distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty about latent signals and irreducible aleatoric observation noise.
method Developed a decoupled PFN architecture that uses query-level labels to train separate heads for latent signal and aleatoric noise.
result Empirically, decoupled PFNs mitigate the failure mode of total-variance exploration in noisy and heteroscedastic settings.
The paper critiques existing uncertainty concepts and proposes a new decision-theoretic approach.
problem Incoherence in existing discussions of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method Decision-theoretic perspective that relates uncertainty, predictive performance, and statistical dispersion.
result Popular information-theoretic quantities can be poor estimators but still useful for guiding data acquisition.
Aleatoric uncertainty is an intrinsic property of ill-posed inverse and imaging problems. Its quantification is vital for assessing the reliability of relevant point estimates. In this paper, we propose an efficient framework for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty for deep residual learning and showcase its significant …
UACQR improves CQR by separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
problem Ineffective CQR for problems with varying quantile regressor performance.
method Integrates aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in CQR.
result UACQR provides stronger conditional coverage in simulated and real-world data.
Model separates overall uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components for active learning.
problem Active learning with uncertainty quantification.
method Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model.
result Model separates overall uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components.
This paper examines sources of uncertainty in machine learning from a statistical perspective.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning models.
method A conceptual, basic science approach examining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
result Sources of uncertainty are diverse and cannot always be decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic.
This work introduces a method to decompose uncertainty in in-context learning for large language models.
problem Understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning for large language models.
method Variational uncertainty decomposition framework without sampling from latent parameter posterior.
result Quantitative and qualitative validation of decomposed epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
Bayesian deep learning accounts for input uncertainty using Errors-in-Variables models.
problem Uncertainty in deep regression models, especially from input data.
method Bayesian treatment with Errors-in-Variables model to decompose predictive uncertainty.
result The approach yields more complete and consistent uncertainty estimates.
We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles of a given target variable. These quantiles can be used to compute well-calibrat…
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate estimation of project cost contingency reserves due to ignoring different types of uncertainty.
method Quantitative determination of project cost contingency reserves using Monte Carlo Simulation considering aleatoric, stochastic, and epistemic uncertainties.
result The proposed method provides more accurate contingency reserves that align with actual project risks.
Bayesian optimisation is a sample-efficient search methodology that holds great promise for accelerating drug and materials discovery programs. A frequently-overlooked modelling consideration in Bayesian optimisation strategies however, is the representation of heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainty. In many practical a…
Cold posteriors improve Bayesian neural networks by reducing overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
method Tuning the temperature of the posterior on a validation set.
result Reducing temperature leads to better reflection of true prior beliefs.
This paper analyzes uncertainty in DFN simulations using sensitivity analysis.
problem Uncertainty in estimating QoI due to epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in DFN simulations.
method Sensitivity analysis to attribute uncertainty to input parameters and aleatoric uncertainty.
result Characterizes uncertainty in DFN flow simulations with heteroskedastic aleatoric uncertainty.
Extends neural network training framework to handle noise and uncertainty.
problem Handling noise and uncertainty in neural network training.
method Integrates non-zero aleatoric noise and derives posterior covariance for epistemic uncertainty.
result Derives an estimator for posterior covariance, providing a handle on epistemic uncertainty.
This study examines how neural network latent representations correlate with model uncertainty.
problem Detecting model uncertainty in neural networks.
method Empirical verification and analysis of latent representations' distribution and conditional output.
result Deep layers in neural networks can infer uncertainty similar to more computationally expensive methods.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve uncertainty modeling in facial emotion recognition.
problem High aleatoric uncertainty and visual ambiguity in facial emotion recognition.
method Bayesian Neural Networks approximated using MC-Dropout, MC-DropConnect, or Ensemble methods.
result Bayesian Neural Networks produce more human-like output probabilities.
Paper decomposes risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and generates predictive uncertainty measures.
problem Unclear relationships between various predictive uncertainty measures in literature.
method Bayesian estimation to decompose risk into aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, generating different predictive uncertainty measures.
result Experimental validation confirms usefulness of derived predictive uncertainty measures for detecting out-of-distribution and misclassified instances.
New method estimates model uncertainty in regression.
problem Challenges in distinguishing aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method Conditional predictions with model's initial output.
result Rigorous frequentist approach to epistemic uncertainty.