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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Adverse Weather

Polarimetric images enhance object detection in adverse weather conditions.

problem Object detection in road scenes is challenging in adverse weather conditions.
method Combining polarimetric imaging and deep learning.
result Polarimetry improves object detection by 20% to 50% compared to conventional RGB images.

This paper reviews radar-based nowcasting techniques for short-term weather predictions.

problem Short-term weather predictions for adverse events like heavy rain and flooding.
method Analysis of existing radar-based nowcasting techniques and machine learning approaches.
result New partnerships between environmental science and machine learning can improve nowcasting.

We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider a thresholded linear model, corresponding to an application of a MARS model to r…

2012-10-08abs ↗pdf ↗

PeakWeather provides Swiss weather station data for machine learning.

problem Accurate weather forecasting for various activities and decision-making.
method High-quality dataset of surface weather observations from 8 years of Swiss stations.
result Dataset supports a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks.

Adversarial fog tests autonomous navigation models.

problem Neural networks are fooled by adversarial perturbations, but fog naturally creates similar perturbations.
method Introduced a new type of adversarial perturbation using generative models and Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks.
result Generated adversarial fog images help test autonomous navigation models.

A novel multi-stage clustering framework improves radar data processing for autonomous vehicles.

problem High sparsity and low dimensionality of radar data makes clustering challenging.
method First, filter out static background data. Then, apply a two-stage clustering approach: 1) low-dimensional clustering, 2) feature extraction from clusters.
result Clear benefits of the first two methods and cluster merging process under specific circumstances.

Weather balloons deploy sensors to collect stratospheric data.

problem Limited data collection in the stratosphere.
method Modeling forecast deviation as a Gaussian process to determine sensor release times; novel hardware system for optimal sensor release.
result Data engineering framework effectively collects stratospheric data through real flights and simulations.

Weather derivatives help farmers hedge against crop yield risks.

problem High basis risks in weather derivatives pricing models.
method Machine learning ensemble technique to determine yield-weather relationships; mean-reverting model with local temperature dependence.
result Average temperature is the most significant weather variable affecting maize yield.

As renewable distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate the power grid at an accelerating speed, it is essential for operators to have accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) energy forecasting for efficient operations and planning. Generally, observed weather data are applied in the solar PV generation forecasting model w…

2017-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper tackles liquidation in dark pools with adverse selection, proving uniqueness of solution.

problem Liquidation in dark pools with adverse selection for multi-asset portfolios.
method Analyzes a multidimensional stochastic control problem leading to a matrix-valued BSDE with jumps and singular terminal condition.
result Proves uniqueness of solution, novel even in simplified settings.

Deep neural networks reduce weather forecast uncertainty estimation costs.

problem Accurate estimation of weather forecast uncertainty using ensemble prediction systems.
method Modified 3D U-Net architecture and models incorporating temporal data.
result Deep neural networks can estimate weather forecast uncertainty with fewer simulations.

Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.

problem Lack of suitable scoring rules for probabilistic weather forecasting.
method Reframe weather variables as continuous paths using iterated integrals (signature kernels) to capture temporal and spatial dependencies.
result Signature kernel scoring rule outperforms conventional methods in weather forecasting, especially for long-term forecasts.

WeatherFormer learns robust weather features from small datasets.

problem Modeling complex weather dynamics from limited data.
method Pretrained transformer encoder on large satellite dataset, with spatiotemporal encoding.
result State-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting.

Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.

problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.

This study analyzes how weather impacts bike sharing usage in Washington D.C.

problem Understanding how weather affects bike sharing usage patterns.
method Gathered bike usage and weather data, used k-means clustering algorithm to identify clusters.
result Weather significantly impacts bike usage, with temperature and precipitation being the most influential factors.

This study tackles basis risk in weather parametric insurance using Monte Carlo simulations.

problem Mismatch between actual loss and payout in weather parametric insurance leads to loss without payout or payout without loss.
method Empirical research using Monte Carlo simulations to test diversification and hedging strategies.
result Portfolio basis risk and volatility decrease with more contracts, and spatial relationships significantly impact basis risk.

A new deep learning method improves weather forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

problem Improper initial states in NWP lead to unsatisfactory weather forecasting performance.
method Data-driven approach with negative log-likelihood error (NLE) loss function and deep ensemble strategies.
result The proposed method significantly improves accuracy by 47.76% compared to NWP.

Study fills and adverse selection effects on trading strategy simulation.

problem Effects of fill probabilities and adverse fills on trading strategy simulation.
method Stochastic optimal control market-making problem, empirical evidence on liquid futures contracts.
result Fill probabilities and adverse fills significantly affect trading strategy performance.

Study improves accuracy of weather data for real-time building simulations.

problem Anomalous and missing weather data affect real-time building energy simulations.
method Introduces a framework for quality control of measured weather data using anomaly detection and neural network infilling.
result Neural Networks enhance the accuracy of data imputation compared to traditional methods.

Paper proposes a method to transfer semantic information between weather conditions for vehicle control.

problem Poor generalization of end-to-end supervised learning for self-driving cars under different weather conditions.
method Divide vehicle control into two modules: a control module trained on one weather condition and a perception module using GANs for new conditions.
result Proposed method achieves similar steering angle prediction results as an end-to-end model trained with 15 different weather conditions.

A framework assesses the quality of crowdsourced weather data.

problem Quality control and assessment of crowdsourced weather data from third-party stations.
method Proposes a simple, scalable, and interpretable AI/Stats/ML framework to assess TPAWS data.
result Demonstrates the performance of the framework using synthetic and real data.

Improved weather forecasting with gridded pseudo-token TNPs.

problem Handling large-scale, unstructured spatio-temporal data in weather forecasting.
method Introducing gridded pseudo-token transformer neural processes (TNPs) with efficient attention mechanisms.
result Consistently outperforms baselines on various synthetic and real-world regression tasks involving large-scale data.

Neural network predicts weather probabilities with added uncertainty.

problem Inferring uncertainty from weather predictions.
method Data-driven neural network trained on WeatherBench dataset, combining outputs from subsets of variables.
result More accurate than some numerical models, provides probabilistic information.

Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.

problem Assessing future weather-induced home insurance claims and losses for disaster preparedness.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression for forecasting future claim dynamics.
result Illustrates SVM approach in forecasting weather-induced home insurance claims in a Canadian city.

Study finds non-adherence to schizophrenia meds leads to earlier adverse events.

problem Impact of medication non-adherence on adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients.
method Survival analysis, causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching), different amounts of longitudinal information.
result Non-adherence to schizophrenia meds advances adverse events by 1 to 4 months.

Deep learning model predicts European weather parameters.

problem Ensemble weather prediction using deep learning.
method Conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (GAN) and Monte-Carlo dropout.
result Forecast skill for geopotential height and two-meter temperature is good, but precipitation is challenging.

Lapse-supported life insurance exacerbates adverse selection risks.

problem Lapse-supported life insurance increases adverse selection costs.
method Modeling 'Term to 100' contracts and analyzing three methods of managing lapse surplus.
result Adverse selection losses can be almost unlimited under certain conditions.

Paper proposes a method for weather-informed probabilistic forecasting and scenario generation in power systems.

problem Challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into power grids due to their stochasticity and uncertainty.
method Combines probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model.

Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction

problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics

Enhances detection of adverse drug events using diverse healthcare record data.

problem Detecting adverse drug events from mixed data types in electronic health records.
method Aggregate diagnosis codes, drug codes, and lab measurements; use recursive feature selection.
result Significant improvement in AUC using additional features, statistically significant.

Improved weather forecasting using deep CNN on cubed-sphere grid.

problem Global weather prediction accuracy and speed.
method Deep convolutional neural network (CNN) on cubed-sphere grid, offline mapping, loss minimization.
result Significantly improved weather forecasts, indefinitely stable, realistic patterns at long lead times.

The paper presents a machine learning framework to combine weather forecasts from multiple models.

problem Combining forecasts from different NWP models with varying biases and limitations.
method Three-stage framework using Quantile Regression Forests and quantile averaging.
result The framework generates well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts suitable for decision support.