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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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46 results for AR-process

The pricing of financial derivatives, which requires massive calculations and close-to-real-time operations under many trading and arbitrage scenarios, were largely infeasible in the past. However, with the advancement of modern computing, the efficiency has substantially improved. In this work, we propose and design a…

2019-06-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes ARPHMM for fault detection and prognosis in aero-engines.

problem Fault detection and prognosis in aero-engines using sensor data.
method Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov Model (ARPHMM) with prior knowledge integration.
result Model estimates remaining useful life and degradation level.

SAMoSSA combines mSSA and AR for accurate time series analysis.

problem Accurately estimating both deterministic and stationary components in time series data.
method Two-stage algorithm: first mSSA for non-stationary components, then AR for stationary residual.
result SAMoSSA provides forecasting consistency and outperforms existing methods.

We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…

2016-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Communication costs, resulting from synchronization requirements during learning, can greatly slow down many parallel machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we present a parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in which subsets of data are processed independently, with very little communication. First, w…

2013-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics has posed significant challenges in practice. We develop a novel online learning f…

2019-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

We derive expressions for the predicitive information rate (PIR) for the class of autoregressive Gaussian processes AR(N), both in terms of the prediction coefficients and in terms of the power spectral density. The latter result suggests a duality between the PIR and the multi-information rate for processes with mutua…

2012-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes integrating wavelet transform, channel attention, and LSTM for better stock price prediction.

problem Inherently difficult stock price prediction due to low signal-to-noise ratio.
method Wavelet transform convolution, channel attention, and LSTM integration.
result Robust performance in post-pandemic market conditions.

Investigates optimal strategies for behavioral control problems with finite variation controls.

problem Behavioral singular stochastic control problems with finite variation controls.
method Abstract framework, applied to storage management and portfolio investment problems, using CPT preferences and Skorokhod representation theorem.
result Existence of optimal strategies for various goal functionals, including CPT preferences.

Uses news sentiment scores for direct reinforcement trading in financial markets.

problem Incorporating news data into quantitative trading remains challenging.
method Directly uses news sentiment scores and raw data as inputs for reinforcement learning, processed by sequence models.
result Achieves superior performance compared to market benchmarks.

Scene text magnifier aims to magnify text in natural scene images without recognition. It could help the special groups, who have myopia or dyslexia to better understand the scene. In this paper, we design the scene text magnifier through interacted four CNN-based networks: character erasing, character extraction, char…

2019-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Cyclic Data Parallelism reduces memory usage and balances gradient communications.

problem Training large deep learning models requires efficient parallelism to scale.
method Cyclic Data Parallelism shifts micro-batches from simultaneous to sequential execution, balancing memory and gradient communications.
result Cyclic Data Parallelism reduces total memory usage and balances gradient communications.

Statistical neurodynamics studies macroscopic behaviors of randomly connected neural networks. We consider a deep layered feedforward network where input signals are processed layer by layer. The manifold of input signals is embedded in a higher dimensional manifold of the next layer as a curved submanifold, provided t…

2018-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved MLMC method for barrier options with non-Lipschitz coefficients.

problem Efficiency improvement for barrier option pricing with non-Lipschitz diffusion.
method Interpolated Drift Implicit Euler MLMC method, Lamperti transformation, Brownian bridge technique.
result Improved efficiency of MLMC for barrier options with non-Lipschitz coefficients.

Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.

problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.

Increasingly, Internet of Things (IoT) domains, such as sensor networks, smart cities, and social networks, generate vast amounts of data. Such data are not only unbounded and rapidly evolving. Rather, the content thereof dynamically evolves over time, often in unforeseen ways. These variations are due to so-called con…

2017-10-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Automates fairness and accuracy optimization in deep learning models for tabular data.

problem Improving fairness and accuracy in neural models for tabular data.
method Employed multi-objective Neural Architecture Search (NAS) and Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO) to find new models.
result Jointly optimized architectures that consistently outperform single-objective fairness mitigation methods.

We propose a simple imputation method for high-dimensional linear regression with missing data.

problem Handling missing covariates in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Impute missing entries with conditional mean of observed covariates and use standard LASSO or square-root LASSO.
result The imputation scheme retains minimax estimation rate and is pivotal for the square-root LASSO.

The problem of distributed representation learning is one in which multiple sources of information X1,,XKX_1,\ldots,X_K are processed separately so as to learn as much information as possible about some ground truth YY. We investigate this problem from information-theoretic grounds, through a generalization of Tishby's ce…

2018-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

New study on time series anomaly detection shows overlapping inference improves performance.

problem Heterogeneous evaluation practices and inference procedures in time series anomaly detection.
method Unified training, tuning, and evaluation protocol on TSB-AD benchmark, analyzing overlapping vs. disjoint inference.
result Overlapping inference yields consistent improvements, with average relative gain up to +28%.

MAESTRO improves multimodal learning for dynamic time series with adaptive attention and robustness.

problem Challenges in multimodal learning, especially in healthcare and daily living.
method Dynamic intra- and cross-modal interactions, symbolic tokenization, adaptive attention budgeting, sparse cross-modal attention, MoE mechanism.
result Average relative improvements of 4% and 8% over existing multimodal and multivariate approaches, respectively, under complete observations.

Transformers learn a mesa-optimizer to implement in-context learning.

problem Understanding the convergence of autoregressive training to a mesa-optimizer.
method Investigated a one-layer linear causal self-attention model autoregressively trained by gradient flow.
result Proved that autoregressive training converges to a gradient descent step for an OLS problem, validating the mesa-optimizer hypothesis.

This work enables privacy-preserving model learning from single samples per client.

problem Learning from devices with only one sample each, especially in early rounds.
method Injects a single, calibrated noisy perturbation to transform data, then aggregates and processes for unbiased gradient update.
result Enables accurate, privacy-preserving model learning from devices with limited data.

Paper proposes an EKF for estimating time-varying market efficiency.

problem Estimating time-varying market efficiency under nonlinear dynamics.
method Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for time-varying autoregressive models.
result U.S. market generally remained weak-form efficient since mid-1946.

LSTM model predicts rainfall runoff with high temporal resolution.

problem Accurate and efficient rainfall runoff simulations for flood risk management.
method Data-driven rainfall runoff model using Long-short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks.
result LSTM model achieves high-resolution discharge predictions with improved performance.

Paper predicts transaction confirmation time in Ethereum blockchain using machine learning.

problem Estimating transaction confirmation time in Ethereum blockchain.
method Uses machine learning, specifically Random Forest Regressor and Multilayer Perceptron, to predict transaction confirmation time.
result Proposed model shows improved accuracy in predicting transaction confirmation time compared to statistical models.