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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for AI risk

The paper analyzes risk spillovers between AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.

problem Risk spillovers among AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
method R2 decomposition method
result AI ETFs and clean energy act as risk transmitters, while AI tokens and green assets act as receivers.

GAICF proposes a framework for managing generative AI risks in banking.

problem Generative AI's impact on financial decision-making and governance.
method SR 26-2-compatible governance framework for generative AI.
result GAICF aligns generative AI practices with SR 26-2 supervisory expectations.

GAICF proposes a framework for governing generative AI in banking.

problem Generative AI's impact on financial decision-making and governance.
method SR 26-2-compatible governance framework for generative AI applications.
result GAICF aligns generative AI practices with SR 26-2 supervisory expectations.

Financial institutions face new model risks with AI, requiring enhanced model risk management.

problem New model risks from Generative AI applications in financial institutions.
method Enhanced model risk framework with additional testing and controls.
result Financial institutions need to enhance their model risk management for Generative AI applications.

AI enhances bank credit risk management through deep learning and data analysis.

problem Inaccurate credit decisions and potential risks in bank credit risk management.
method Innovative application of AI technology, including deep learning and big data analysis.
result AI provides more accurate and comprehensive credit decision support, reducing risks and losses.

Research creates a taxonomy to bridge AI security and regulatory gaps.

problem Disciplinary disconnect between technical and legal teams in AI risk assessment.
method Developed an AI System Threat Vector Taxonomy with 9 domains and 53 sub-threats.
result Empirically validated and aligned with ISO/IEC 42001 controls and NIST AI RMF functions.

Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.

problem Quantifying the risk of agentic AI systems due to uncertain beliefs and actions.
method Representing the system as a partially observed Markov decision process with latent states, Bayesian belief updates, control-dependent losses, and tail-risk functionals.
result Develops a rigorous framework for separating uncertainty quantification from risk measurement.

Algorithmic insurance tackles financial risks from AI errors, proving CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk.

problem High-stakes AI errors lead to heterogeneous losses, challenging traditional insurance assumptions.
method Analyzed binary classification performance to tail risk exposure, using CVaR to quantify extreme losses.
result CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk up to 13-fold compared to accuracy maximization.

This research develops a new framework to measure AI investment returns considering both gains and risks.

problem Traditional ROI calculations fail to account for AI's dual impact on risk reduction and new exposures.
method Integrates ISO 42001 and regulatory exposure into a comprehensive financial framework using risk quantification methods.
result Accurate AI investment evaluation requires modeling both productivity gains and risk exposures.

This paper maps the insurability of AI risks across various insurance products.

problem Emerging AI risks and their implications for insurance coverage.
method Coding 55 AI threat classes against 26 insurance products using public carrier materials and threat catalogs.
result Identification of a four-tier insurability frontier: affirmatively insured, silent-AI exposures, actively excluded, and unstructured perils.

Examines AI regulation in finance, highlighting risks and gaps in current laws.

problem Rapid AI adoption in finance introduces risks and compliance challenges.
method Reviews current legislation, industry guidelines, and real-world use cases.
result Need for adaptive, technology-neutral policies to balance innovation and consumer protection.

Paper proposes government indemnification for AI risks to solve judgment-proof problem.

problem Uninsurable risks from AI, especially existential risks, create a judgment-proof problem.
method A government-provided, mandatory indemnification program using risk-priced fees and Bayesian Truth Serum.
result The approach better leverages private information and signals risk mitigation efforts.

Paper defines AI-specific loss reconstruction problem and introduces CER framework.

problem Reconstructing AI-generated losses, especially in agentic systems.
method CER framework: C (control boundary), E (evidence reconstruction), R (insurance response).
result Defines AI-specific reconstruction problem and operationalizes it.

Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.

problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.

RestoreAI predicts landmine risk from patterns, improving clearance efficiency.

problem Predicting landmine risk from spatial patterns to enhance clearance efficiency.
method RestoreAI uses landmine patterns for risk prediction, implementing three deminers: linear, curved, and Bayesian.
result RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency, achieving a 14.37 percentage point increase in cleared landmines per timestep.

AI helps assess nature-related financial risks for financial institutions.

problem Challenges in evaluating nature-related risks due to large data volume and complexity.
method Uses AI to address data gaps, uncertainty, and complex systems.
result Potential AI solutions for two use cases: beef supply and water utility.

This paper evaluates investment risks in LATAM AI startups using DCF method.

problem Unique challenges and risks faced by LATAM tech startups.
method Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) metrics; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method.
result Developed a ranking of emerging powers in Latin America for tech startup investment.

New AI models improve financial hedging by reducing shortfall and tail risk.

problem Static model calibration gaps in derivatives markets.
method Two reinforcement learning frameworks: RLOP and QLBS.
result RLOP reduces shortfall frequency and improves tail risk in stress scenarios.

AI random forest model improves credit risk scoring for Azerbaijani SMEs.

problem Improving accuracy in identifying defaulters for SME loans.
method Used Python to compare a Delphi model with a random forest model, measuring accuracy, precision, recall, and F-1 scores.
result Significant improvements in model performance (e.g., from 0.69 to 0.83 in accuracy).

Model shows AI adoption amplifies financial market risk through prediction, herding, and cognitive dependency.

problem Systemic risk in financial markets due to AI adoption.
method Developed a unified model within an extended rational expectations framework, incorporating endogenous adoption, performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency.
result Systemic risk multiplier grows superlinearly with AI penetration, implying tail-loss amplification of 18-54%.

AI-driven framework improves enterprise financial audits and risk identification.

problem Manual auditing is inefficient and limited by data complexity and evolving fraud tactics.
method Machine learning algorithms (SVM, RF, KNN) applied to a dataset of audit project counts, violations, and fraud instances.
result Random Forest achieves best performance with F1-score of 0.9012, identifying fraud and compliance anomalies.

The study uses ML and AI to forecast pension fund mortality, outperforming traditional methods.

problem Incorporating longevity risk into pension fund financial assessments.
method Employed actuarial learning with ML/AI techniques (regression trees, random forest, boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, neural networks) on actuarial data.
result ML/AI algorithms outperform the Lee-Carter model in mortality forecasting for pension funds.

A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.

problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.

AI enhances financial services but humans are irreplaceable for empathy, presence, and ethics.

problem AI's limitations in financial services, especially with small datasets and human judgment.
method EPOCH framework highlighting five irreplaceable human capabilities: Empathy, Presence, Opinion, Creativity, and Hope.
result Humans are essential for trust, innovation, and consumer experience in financial services.

LibAUC optimizes X-risks for AI tasks like CID, LTR, and CLR.

problem Optimizing risk functions in AI for tasks like classification, ranking, and representation learning.
method Developed a new mini-batch pipeline for deep X-risk optimization (DXO) algorithms.
result Achieved great success in solving CID, LTR, and CLR tasks with faster convergence and scalable performance.

ToolChain-CRC addresses the risk-control problem for retrieval-augmented and tool-using agents under drift.

problem Risk-control problem for retrieval-augmented and tool-using agents under drift.
method ToolChain-CRC uses conformal risk-control under exchangeable calibration runs.
result Trajectory-level risk control keeps accepted-trajectory risk below the target.

AI systems need reliable testing to ensure safety and trustworthiness.

problem Current AI Act lacks functional trustworthiness for AI systems.
method Define technical application distribution, set risk-based performance, and conduct statistically valid testing.
result Reliable functional trustworthiness is essential for AI systems.

Foundation AI model outperforms traditional VaR methods in forecasting.

problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for financial returns.
method Time-series foundation AI model, pre-trained on diverse datasets, fine-tuned for specific quantiles.
result Fine-tuned foundation model consistently outperforms traditional methods in actual-over-expected ratios.

A new runtime for AI agents calculates risks in real-time.

problem Managing risks and liabilities in autonomous AI actions.
method A time-consistent counterfactual actuarial layer with explicit underwriting boundaries.
result Establishes a well-defined toll and guarantees executed-action budgets.