Explainable AI improves human decision accuracy but does not enhance it significantly.
problem Improving human decision-making through explainable AI.
method Comparing human decision accuracy with and without AI predictions, including or excluding explanations.
result Providing AI predictions improves human decision accuracy, but explanations do not significantly enhance it.
This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.
problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.
Develops methods for AI self-assessment to improve trustworthiness.
problem Uncertainty in AI predictions and lack of trust in AI systems.
method Uncertainty estimation techniques considering practical impacts and costs.
result Guidelines for selecting and designing effective AI self-assessment methods.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
problem Predicting economic activity using existing measures like surveys.
method Extracted managerial expectations from transcripts using generative AI.
result AI Economy Score predicts economic activity up to 10 quarters ahead.
The paper investigates AI robustness through experiments and statistical analysis.
problem Inaccurate AI predictions can lead to safety and adoption issues.
method Design of experiments framework to study AI classification robustness.
result AI algorithms' robustness is influenced by various factors.
Paper uses AI to predict stock market volatility with neural networks and genetic algorithms.
problem Traditional methods for predicting stock market volatility have high errors.
method Back-propagation neural network and genetic algorithm integrated model.
result The model predicts future volatility with low errors and high accuracy.
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics
AI models predict stock trends using historical data and public sentiment.
problem Improving stock market prediction accuracy using AI.
method Employed regression and classification ML algorithms for technical and fundamental analysis respectively.
result Median performance suggests AI is not yet superior to stock markets.
New approach optimizes sales process for B2B businesses.
problem Optimizing the sales process for B2B businesses.
method Causal Predictive Optimization and Generation with three layers: prediction, optimization, and serving.
result Significant wins over legacy systems in LinkedIn implementation.
StockGPT predicts stock returns using AI, outperforming traditional strategies.
problem Making accurate stock predictions and trading decisions.
method Trains an autoregressive model on historical stock returns, using attention mechanisms to learn patterns.
result StockGPT's portfolios outperform traditional strategies, yielding significant alphas.
The paper studies how to allocate human validation in AI-assisted tasks to minimize errors.
problem Heterogeneous reliability of AI-generated signals across tasks, products, and customer segments.
method Tuned prediction-powered inference, upper confidence bounds policy, Neyman square-root rule.
result The proposed policy outperforms uniform and epsilon-greedy allocation, closing most of the gap to the oracle when reliability is heterogeneous.
Theory explains how AI models can predict unseen tasks without labeled data.
problem Understanding how AI models can generalize to unseen tasks.
method Developed a theoretical framework to analyze zero-shot prediction.
result Identified key quantities and independence relationships for generalization.
Extends post-prediction inference method for more accurate AI/ML data analysis.
problem Naively using AI/ML predictions as true observations leads to biased results.
method Extends Wang et al. method to relax assumptions and incorporate a scaling factor.
result Yields unbiased point estimates and proper coverage in simulations.
New method handles missing data using AI for efficient inference.
problem Parameter estimation and inference with blockwise missing data.
method Tractable solution using AI models and semiparametric theory.
result IBM(RAY) and IBM(Adaptive) estimators achieve efficiency gains.
A method compares AI corrections to a base model for explaining predictions.
problem Creating explanations for AI predictions.
method Introduces a surrogate model to correct a simpler base model and provides criteria for accuracy and fidelity.
result Induces neighborhoods of instances with ideal accuracy and fidelity.
AI predicts stock winners with 2.43 Sharpe ratio, but returns are highly concentrated.
problem Predicting stock returns with AI, focusing on identifying top winners.
method Deployed a state-of-the-art LLM to autonomously search the web for stock attractiveness, avoiding look-ahead bias.
result AI can generate alpha by identifying top winners, but returns are highly concentrated.
AI-driven Bayesian inference improves decision-making uncertainty.
problem Lack of certainty in AI predictions.
method Non-parametric Bayesian framework with Dirichlet process prior and AI-driven baseline.
result AI predictions can be integrated into Bayesian analysis for predictive inference and uncertainty quantification.
Generative AI predicts Arctic sea ice dynamics over decades.
problem Reproducing realistic sea ice dynamics from days to decades is computationally challenging.
method Introduced GenSIM, a generative AI model trained on 20 years of sea-ice-ocean simulation data.
result Generative AI predicts realistic sea ice evolution for 30 years, capturing long-term trends and physical consistency.
Paper proposes a new method to evaluate AI model interpretability in bond default prediction.
problem Lack of standardized method to assess inherent interpretability of AI models.
method Uses LIME and SHAP to assess feature contributions in bond default prediction.
result Consistent results with intuitive understanding of model interpretability.
New method uses AI predictions as cheaper alternatives to expensive outcomes.
problem Using expensive outcomes for statistical inference.
method Recalibrated prediction-powered inference using machine learning techniques.
result Significant gains in effective sample size over existing PPI proposals.
Study uses AI to refine loan assessments, improving credit default predictions.
problem Improving credit default prediction accuracy using AI-refined text.
method Comparative analysis of human-written and AI-refined loan assessments using deep learning techniques.
result AI-refined texts significantly enhance credit default predictions, especially when combined with structured data.
Enhances explainability of AI models without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in black-box models like Deep Neural Networks and Gradient Boosting.
method Co-supervised Local Model Synthesis (SynthTree) using Mixture of Linear Models (MLM).
result Statistical models significantly enhance explainability of AI models.
Artificial intelligence (AI) will pave the way to a new era in medicine. However, currently available AI systems do not interact with a patient, e.g., for anamnesis, and thus are only used by the physicians for predictions in diagnosis or prognosis. However, these systems are widely used, e.g., in diabetes or cancer pr…
AI beats 95% of humans in Rock-Paper-Scissors.
problem Predicting and modeling human behavior in strategic games.
method Used Markov Models of varying memory lengths to compete against humans, introducing a 'focus length' parameter.
result Multi-AI strategy wins over 95% of human opponents in continuous 300-round games.
Human-AI teaming suffers from calibration issues.
problem Human-AI teaming
method Assume calibrated models and humans
result Existing methods for combination do not preserve human's calibration.
The 2018 Grand Challenge targets the problem of accurate predictions on data streams produced by automatic identification system (AIS) equipment, describing naval traffic. This paper reports the technical details of a custom solution, which exposes multiple tuning parameters, making its configurability one of the main …
Optimal allocation of human effort to correct AI assessments in decision-making.
problem How to allocate costly human effort to correct noisy or biased AI-generated assessments.
method Decision-theoretic framework treating AI assessments as signals and human judgments as costly information. Developed estimation procedures under nonparametric and linear models.
result Our approach substantially outperforms LLM-only predictions and achieves performance comparable to full human review while using only 20-30% of the human information.
Enhanced AI analysis predicts S&P 500 stock dynamics using various financial metrics.
problem Predicting S&P 500 stock performance with complex interplay of factors.
method Advanced financial metrics, machine learning, and integration of traditional and modern analytics.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy in market behavior and investment strategies.
Book introduces ML and AI for causal inference.
problem Uncertainty in causal relationships.
method Structural equation models, DAGs, SCMs, and Double/Debiased Machine Learning.
result Improved inference in causal models using predictive tools.
This abstract reviews recent methods for predicting protein-ligand binding affinity.
problem Predicting protein-ligand binding affinity for various applications in life sciences.
method Traditional and deep learning models for binding affinity prediction.
result Improved predictive performance of AI-driven models.
Study compares AI models for stock price prediction using financial news.
problem Predicting stock price movements using financial news.
method Used FinBERT, GPT-4, and Logistic Regression for sentiment analysis and prediction.
result Logistic Regression outperformed FinBERT and GPT-4, achieving 81.83% accuracy.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
RestoreAI predicts landmine risk from patterns, improving clearance efficiency.
problem Predicting landmine risk from spatial patterns to enhance clearance efficiency.
method RestoreAI uses landmine patterns for risk prediction, implementing three deminers: linear, curved, and Bayesian.
result RestoreAI significantly boosts clearance efficiency, achieving a 14.37 percentage point increase in cleared landmines per timestep.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved considerably in the last few years. While applications of AI is now becoming more common in fields like retail and marketing, application of AI in solving problems related to developing countries is still an emerging topic. Specially, AI applications in resource-poor settings re…
Study reveals AI skin cancer classifiers underperform for darker skin phototypes, advocating for fairness auditing.
problem AI bias in dermatology, particularly for darker skin phototypes.
method Predictive Representativity (PR) framework, evaluating classifiers on HAM10000 and BOSQUE Test sets.
result Substantial performance disparities by skin phototype, highlighting AI bias.
Artificial intelligence (AI) comes with great opportunities but can also pose significant risks. Automatically generated explanations for decisions can increase transparency and foster trust, especially for systems based on automated predictions by AI models. However, given, e.g., economic incentives to create dishones…
A new method for interpreting AI models using Shapley value for functional data.
problem Interpreting AI models, especially those based on functional data.
method Proposes an interpretability method based on the Shapley value for continuous games.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method through experiments with simulated and real data.
Generative AI tasks analyzed for text, images, audio, video, code, and molecules.
problem What is the core question when using generative AI?
method Survey of generative model families, probabilistic framework, game-theoretic setup, post-training modifications, socially responsible considerations.
result Generative AI is a distinct machine learning task with connections to prediction, compression, and decision-making.
The paper proposes an AI and IIoT framework for improved maintenance.
problem Current maintenance practices need improvement with AI and IIoT.
method Review of reliability modeling, introduction of Intelligent Maintenance framework, and novel probabilistic deep learning approach.
result Demonstrated novel probabilistic deep learning reliability modelling in Turbofan Engine Degradation Dataset.
The paper uses XAI to predict RFQ fulfillment accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting RFQ fulfillment for less liquid asset classes.
method Advanced algorithms like Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Bayesian Neural Tree.
result Improved accuracy in RFQ fill rate predictions.
Paper estimates AI hallucinations in conditional generation tasks.
problem Estimating the frequency of AI-generated incorrect responses.
method Developed a method to estimate hallucination probability from generated responses and log probabilities.
result Method accurately estimates hallucination rate in natural language and synthetic tasks.
Study merges datasets to improve AI model performance.
problem Improving machine learning models with diverse datasets.
method Developed an algorithm using oracle inequality and data-driven estimators.
result Algorithm reduces population loss with high probability.
AI systems are being deployed to support human decision making in high-stakes domains. In many cases, the human and AI form a team, in which the human makes decisions after reviewing the AI's inferences. A successful partnership requires that the human develops insights into the performance of the AI system, including …
We describe the concept of logical scaffolds, which can be used to improve the quality of software that relies on AI components. We explain how some of the existing ideas on runtime monitors for perception systems can be seen as a specific instance of logical scaffolds. Furthermore, we describe how logical scaffolds ma…
The study evaluates AI model performance measures for medical use.
problem Selecting appropriate performance measures for AI models in medical practice.
method Assessed 32 performance measures across five domains for binary outcomes.
result 17 measures are both proper and reflect decision-analytic performance.
The ubiquity of systems using artificial intelligence or "AI" has brought increasing attention to how those systems should be regulated. The choice of how to regulate AI systems will require care. AI systems have the potential to synthesize large amounts of data, allowing for greater levels of personalization and preci…
New AI stock indices classify firms' AI engagement using 10-K filings.
problem Opaque AI selection criteria in existing ETFs.
method NLP analysis of 10-K filings to classify AI stocks.
result Companies with higher AI engagement have greater positive returns.