Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
Instrumented data enables causal scientific machine learning
problem Insufficient data for causal scientific machine learning
method Instrumented data with explicit model, uncertainty, and counterfactuals
result Supports causal interventions through Pearl's do-operator
EduQG generates better educational questions by pre-training on scientific text.
problem Improving the quality of educational questions for scalable self-assessment.
method Adapting a large language model for educational question generation, pre-trained on scientific text.
result EduQG produces superior educational questions compared to baseline models.
FreB protocol uses AI to infer hidden parameters with valid confidence regions.
problem Generating biased or overconfident conclusions from AI-generated posterior distributions.
method Frequentist-Bayes (FreB) protocol reshapes AI-generated posterior distributions into valid confidence regions.
result FreB provides valid confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with expected probability.
AI methods broaden signal discovery in scientific data.
problem Limited coverage of possible signals in model-dependent searches.
method Model-agnostic AI strategies for broad exploration.
result Enhanced discovery potential in experimental science.
Develops methods for causal inference in compositional data using instrumental variables.
problem Interpreting summary statistics like diversity indices as causal effects in compositional data.
method Statistical data transformations and regression techniques tailored for compositional data.
result Advantages and limitations of the proposed methods demonstrated on synthetic and real microbiome data.
AI+MPS workshop aims to strengthen AI's role in science.
problem AI's potential to enhance scientific discovery and education.
method Proposes activities and strategic priorities to strengthen AI-MPS link.
result AI and science are becoming increasingly intertwined.
AI uses language models to find instrumental variables quickly.
problem Finding valid instrumental variables is a challenging and heuristic process.
method Uses large language models to search for new instrumental variables through narratives and counterfactual reasoning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies for LLMs.
BGM-IV uses AI to estimate causal effects in complex data.
problem Estimating causal effects in high-dimensional, nonlinear settings with endogeneity.
method Structured latent generative modeling for posterior inference in a causally structured latent space.
result BGM-IV outperforms existing methods in high-dimensional covariate regimes.
Qlib aims to integrate AI into quantitative investment.
problem Challenges in applying AI to quantitative investment.
method Design and develop Qlib to accommodate AI-driven workflow.
result Qlib realizes the potential of AI technologies in quantitative investment.
CausalGame benchmarks LLM agents' causal thinking in games.
problem Evaluating causal thinking in AI Scientists with LLMs.
method Interactive games with 14 scenarios incorporating selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders.
result None of the 30 LLM agents demonstrated reliable causal thinking, with the best model achieving only 68.0% survival.
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
problem AI's risks to vulnerable peoples and negative impacts of innovation.
method Embedding decolonial critical approach in AI technical practice.
result Developing tactics to align AI with ethical principles.
Framework evaluates AI proposals for drug discovery, finds no LLM advantage.
problem No principled framework exists for evaluating AI-guided scientific selection under budget constraints.
method Formally verified metric (BSDS/DQS) penalizes false discoveries and excessive abstention.
result LLMs provide no marginal value over existing classifiers in drug discovery.
Paper detects bias in AI medical models using CART.
problem Ensuring fairness in AI medical decision support systems.
method Uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to identify bias.
result Validated the CART approach in both synthetic and real-world data.
New framework replicates private equity performance using AI and liquid strategies.
problem Inadequate trust and transparency in private equity markets.
method Advanced graphical models and asymmetric risk adjustments.
result Liquid, scalable solution that closely mimics private equity performance.
Study investigates how AI can create and detect deceptive explanations, finding they can fool humans but ML can detect them.
problem The risk of deceptive AI explanations increasing trust issues and economic risks.
method Investigates creation and detection of deceptive explanations using AI models and machine learning methods.
result Deceptive explanations can fool humans, but ML can detect them with high accuracy.
New AI approach improves quantum device calibration by leveraging prior scientific discoveries.
problem Lack of abundant data in scientific disciplines hinders model generalizability.
method Introduces a new machine learning approach that combines prior scientific knowledge with data.
result Accuracy in predicting quantum device energy spectrum surpasses current state-of-the-art by over 20%.
Study analyzes AI's impact on firms, markets, and workers using large language model data.
problem Understanding AI's effect on firms, markets, and workers.
method Used 380 trillion tokens from 400+ large language models to analyze AI's impact.
result Firms with higher AI exposure earn higher returns, creating an AI premium.
Universal AI seeks high-optionality states through empowerment and curiosity.
problem Understanding and optimizing AI behavior in uncertain environments.
method Unified framework combining AIXI and variational empowerment, showing how universal AI agents balance goal-directed behavior with uncertainty reduction curiosity.
result Self-AIXI asymptotically converges to AIXI performance and exhibits power-seeking behavior due to intrinsic motivations.
Discussing the need for explainable AI in various fields.
problem The lack of transparency in AI and ML methods.
method Discussion of explainable AI from a grounded perspective.
result Highlighting the importance of explainable AI in fields like health and justice.
Polynomial chaos surrogates quantify epistemic uncertainty in AI-driven scientific models.
problem Uncertainty in reward estimates hinders interpretability in sequential generative models.
method Fit polynomial chaos expansions to trained models to propagate epistemic uncertainty and quantify sensitivity.
result Interpretable decomposition of reward components driving generative decisions.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems sometimes make errors and will make errors in the future, from time to time. These errors are usually unexpected, and can lead to dramatic consequences. Intensive development of AI and its practical applications makes the problem of errors more important. Total re-engineering of the…
This paper reviews and introduces measures for data representativity in AI systems.
problem Ensuring appropriate inference from data in AI systems.
method Defined and evaluated three measurable concepts of representativity.
result Contrasts between coverage and distribution representativity are crucial for AI system building.
The paper argues for prioritizing identifying structure over complex models for scientific discovery.
problem Underdetermination of mechanisms in high-dimensional data, leading to unreliable explanations.
method Proposes concrete standards for 'mechanistic ML' to avoid collapsing explanations.
result Large language models (LLMs) can collapse large equivalence classes of explanations, making it hard to distinguish between mechanisms.
AI helps HEP measure uncertainties, but needs better interpretation.
problem Uncertainty interpretation in AI for HEP measurements.
method Discussing existing AI methods for inference, simulation, and control/decision-making.
result Need for trustworthy AI UQ methods for widespread usage.
This paper maps the insurability of AI risks across various insurance products.
problem Emerging AI risks and their implications for insurance coverage.
method Coding 55 AI threat classes against 26 insurance products using public carrier materials and threat catalogs.
result Identification of a four-tier insurability frontier: affirmatively insured, silent-AI exposures, actively excluded, and unstructured perils.
DBOT uses AI to automate long-term stock valuation.
problem Automating long-term stock valuation using AI.
method DBOT uses generative AI to reason about company valuations.
result DBOT can value any publicly traded company and is comparable to Aswath Damodaran.
AI enhances microbiology and microbiome research through machine learning.
problem Understanding microbial life and its impact on health and the environment.
method AI-driven approaches including machine learning and deep learning.
result Transformative role in enhancing microbial life understanding.
AI enhances bank credit risk management through deep learning and data analysis.
problem Inaccurate credit decisions and potential risks in bank credit risk management.
method Innovative application of AI technology, including deep learning and big data analysis.
result AI provides more accurate and comprehensive credit decision support, reducing risks and losses.
Peer-induced fairness framework audits algorithmic fairness in AI applications.
problem Current auditing methods lack robustness and fail to distinguish between algorithmic discrimination and subject limitations.
method Combines counterfactual fairness and peer comparison strategy for a reliable auditing tool.
result Demonstrates significant unfairness in micro-firms compared to non-micro firms, highlighting the framework's potential.
New findings show AI models can't be validated in complex social systems.
problem AI models in complex social systems can't be validated due to data collection practices.
method Formal impossibility results using the MovieLens benchmark.
result AI models in complex social systems are invalid under current data collection practices.
AI uses KGs to assess economic impact of selective lockdowns on Italian companies.
problem Impact of selective lockdowns on Italian companies' economic stability.
method Automated Reasoning and Knowledge Graphs to analyze company networks.
result Identifies strategic companies at risk of takeover during lockdowns.
Algorithmic insurance tackles financial risks from AI errors, proving CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk.
problem High-stakes AI errors lead to heterogeneous losses, challenging traditional insurance assumptions.
method Analyzed binary classification performance to tail risk exposure, using CVaR to quantify extreme losses.
result CVaR-optimal thresholds reduce tail risk up to 13-fold compared to accuracy maximization.
PiNets provide faithful explanations for neural networks.
problem Lack of true explanations for neural network predictions.
method Pointwise-interpretable Networks (PiNets) that form linear models instance-wise.
result PiNets offer explanations that are meaningful, aligned, robust, and sufficient.
LIMEADE improves AI advice for opaque models, enhancing accuracy and user satisfaction.
problem Lack of advice methods for opaque AI models.
method Develops a general framework to translate advice into model updates.
result Improves accuracy and user satisfaction compared to baselines.
CausalEvolve improves efficiency and discovery in open-ended scientific tasks.
problem Lack of targeted guidance and knowledge organization in evolve-based agents.
method Causal scratchpad that identifies and reasons about guiding factors for evolution.
result Effective improvement in evolutionary efficiency and better solutions.
Paper reviews synthetic data from AI models for statistical inference.
problem When can synthetic data be used reliably in statistical inference?
method Survey of generative models, statistical analysis of pitfalls.
result Principled use of synthetic data requires careful model specification.
Extracts StarCraft II tournament data for AI and ML studies.
problem Lack of accessible esports data for scientific use.
method Gathered and processed StarCraft II tournament replays using an API parser library.
result The largest publicly available StarCraft II esports dataset.
The spectroscopy measurement is one of main pathways for exploring and understanding the nature. Today, it seems that racing artificial intelligence will remould its styles. The algorithms contained in huge neural networks are capable of substituting many of expensive and complex components of spectrum instruments. In …
Model shows AI adoption amplifies financial market risk through prediction, herding, and cognitive dependency.
problem Systemic risk in financial markets due to AI adoption.
method Developed a unified model within an extended rational expectations framework, incorporating endogenous adoption, performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency.
result Systemic risk multiplier grows superlinearly with AI penetration, implying tail-loss amplification of 18-54%.
Synthetic data can be used to ask more questions and accelerate discovery with provable validity guarantees.
problem Valid inference with synthetic data
method Task exchangeability
result Provable validity guarantees for synthetic data inference
Survey of AI-based outlier detection methods for various domains.
problem Detecting unusual events to prevent infrastructure damage.
method Categorizes six major OD methods: Statistical, Distance, Density, Clustering, Learning, and Ensemble.
result Advances and challenges of each method discussed.
AI helps forecasters understand TC convective evolution before intensification.
problem Challenges in extracting scientific insights from complex TC data.
method Combining AI prediction algorithms and classical statistical inference.
result Identifies patterns in TC convective structure leading to intensification.
Scientific and business practices are increasingly resulting in large collections of randomized experiments. Analyzed together, these collections can tell us things that individual experiments in the collection cannot. We study how to learn causal relationships between variables from the kinds of collections faced by m…
Rubin LSST DESC uses AI/ML for dark energy research.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification and model robustness for AI/ML in DESC.
method Bayesian inference, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, active learning.
result AI/ML methods are essential but require rigorous evaluation and governance.
New AI framework without networks outperforms traditional models.
problem The role of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in AI is unclear and raises ethical and legal concerns.
method Developed a parameter-free, statistically consistent data interpolation method for AI.
result Framework outperforms traditional mathematical models and ANN-based models in various applications.
Bayesian deep learning improves deep learning's capabilities across diverse settings.
problem Overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types in deep learning.
method Revisits strengths of Bayesian deep learning and addresses challenges.
result Bayesian deep learning can elevate deep learning's capabilities across diverse settings.
Framework simplifies AI access for all.
problem AI's concentration of power leads to inequalities.
method Develops a Python framework for democratizing AI.
result Single interface for various AI solutions.