New algorithm for mean estimation in add-remove model achieves optimal error.
problem Mean estimation in add-remove model of differential privacy.
method Proposed new algorithm achieving min-max optimality.
result Achieves best possible constant in mean squared error for all ε.
Paper develops efficient mechanisms for estimating variance and covariance under differential privacy in the add-remove model.
problem Estimating variance and covariance under differential privacy in the add-remove model.
method Developed mechanisms based on the Bézier mechanism, a novel moment-release framework.
result Proved minimax optimality of the Bézier-based estimator in the high-privacy regime and demonstrated its better utility in instance-wise analysis.
Non-parametric estimators improve quickest changepoint detection under irregular sequence lengths.
problem Limited and irregular sequence lengths hinder application of ARL and ADD in QCD.
method Analogies with survival analysis to model detection probabilities under truncation.
result KM-ARL and KM-ADD non-parametric estimators are asymptotically unbiased.
ADD-THIN improves TPP forecasting by handling long-term data sequences.
problem Sequential limitations in autoregressive models for TPPs.
method Diffusion model for TPPs that operates on entire sequences.
result ADD-THIN outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecasting.
Private statistics estimation faces a bias, accuracy, and privacy trilemma.
problem Balancing privacy, accuracy, and bias in statistical estimation.
method Use differential privacy (DP) for private statistics, but clip samples to control sensitivity and add noise for privacy, introducing bias.
result No algorithm can simultaneously have low bias, low error, and low privacy loss for arbitrary distributions.
New method evaluates LLMs fairness in universal prediction.
problem Evaluating fairness of large language models in universal prediction.
method Introducing batch regret as a modification of average regret for LLMs.
result Asymptotical value of batch regret for add-constant predictors on memoryless and first-order Markov sources.
New method adds uncertainty estimation to softmax outputs.
problem Uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Extend softmax layer with an additional constant input.
result Performs comparably to more computationally expensive methods.
ADD embeds a 48-bit message into images, achieving high accuracy and speed.
problem Embedding high-fidelity messages into images to detect authenticity and source.
method Two-stage process: linear combination and addition of watermark to image, followed by decoding.
result ADD achieves 100% decoding accuracy for 48-bit watermarking, with minimal performance drop under various distortions.
SAGE improves memory efficiency by selectively adding, merging, or ignoring new facts.
problem Efficiently managing new facts in agentic LLMs to avoid costly write-time reasoning.
method SAGE uses a von Mises-Fisher-based density estimator to score and route candidate facts.
result SAGE achieves the best average token-F1 on LoCoMo and reduces add-phase API cost by 3.4x on GPT-4o-mini.
Estimates extreme probabilities using fewer simulations than Monte Carlo.
problem Estimating tail probabilities of complex systems efficiently.
method Builds a statistical surrogate with few evaluations and sequentially improves the estimate.
result Improves estimation of extreme probabilities with fewer simulations.
Improved uncertainty estimation in neural networks with VBLL.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
method Deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks.
result Improves predictive accuracy, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection.
Sharp rates for prediction error in high-dimensional sparse models.
problem High-dimensional sparse linear models with limited predictive power.
method Forward regression for model selection and least squares estimation.
result Sharp convergence rates without beta-min or irrepresentability conditions.
Unified approach for robust low rank matrix estimation with adversaries.
problem Robust low rank matrix estimation in the presence of adversaries.
method Unified approach combining Huber loss and nuclear norm penalization.
result Sharp estimation error bounds for matrix compressed sensing and completion.
The purpose of this paper is to identify a relevant statistical correlation between rate of default, RD, and loss given default, LGD, in a major Brazilian financial institution Retail Home Equity exposure rated using the IRB approach, so that we may find a causal relationship between the two risk parameters. Therefore,…
A new method reduces variance in training discrete latent variable models.
problem High variance in stochastic gradient estimators for discrete latent variable models.
method Double control variates for score function estimators using Taylor expansions.
result Our method can have lower variance compared to other estimators.
Uber improves trip prediction with deep learning and uncertainty estimation.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for time series prediction at Uber.
method Proposes a novel end-to-end Bayesian deep model combining LSTM networks with probabilistic formulation.
result Successfully applied to large-scale time series anomaly detection at Uber.
The paper improves SVR with linear constraints for better model properties.
problem Improving Support Vector Regression with linear constraints.
method Generalized SMO algorithm for solving optimization with linear constraints.
result The proposed method shows better practical performance on various datasets.
In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a data-driven staged mixture modeling technique for building density, regression, and classification models. Our basic approach is to sequentially add components to a finite mixture model using the structural expectation maximization (SEM) algorithm. We show that our technique i…
We add a set of convex constraints to the lasso to produce sparse interaction models that honor the hierarchy restriction that an interaction only be included in a model if one or both variables are marginally important. We give a precise characterization of the effect of this hierarchy constraint, prove that hierarchy…
The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures of risk measures in terms of bias. We show that once the parameters of a model ne…
Optimistic estimate predicts best fitting performance of nonlinear models.
problem Evaluating the potential of nonlinear models in fitting.
method Proposes an optimistic estimate to quantify the smallest sample size for fitting nonlinear models.
result Predicts specific subsets of targets that can be fitted at overparameterization.
Study robust distribution estimation with Wasserstein distance, achieving optimal risk.
problem Robust distribution estimation under adversarial corruption.
method Combining partial OT and minimum distance estimation, proving structural properties and deriving a novel dual form.
result Achieves minimax-optimal robust estimation risk in many settings.
Efficient classifier error estimation without re-training.
problem Estimating classifier error without re-training.
method Generalized resubstitution based on empirical measures.
result Consistent and asymptotically unbiased error estimation.
AdaCat improves density estimation and planning in autoregressive models.
problem Efficiently modeling sharp density changes in continuous data.
method Adaptive Categorical Discretization (AdaCat) for autoregressive models.
result Improves density estimation and planning in various data types.
Greedy method adds neurons one by one for better function approximation.
problem Function approximation in neural networks.
method Growing deep neural network by adding one neuron at a time with non-linear activation.
result Accurate approximants for model problems in function approximation.
Optimizes hard-to-optimize metrics using adaptive surrogates.
problem Training models with black-box and hard-to-optimize metrics.
method Expresses metric as a function of surrogates, solves optimization problem over relaxed surrogate space.
result Approach performs on par with known methods and adds value when metric form is unknown.
Adds a randomized prior network to improve uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation for sequential decision problems in deep reinforcement learning.
method Proposes a simple remedy through addition of a randomized untrainable `prior' network to each ensemble member.
result The approach is efficient with linear representations and scales better than previous attempts to large-scale problems.
Improved robustness in ASR systems with speaker adaptation.
problem Improving robustness in automatic speech recognition systems.
method Weighted-Simple-Add method for adding weighted speaker information vectors to the conformer-based acoustic model.
result Achieved 11% relative improvement in WER on Switchboard 300h Hub5'00 dataset.
An improved algorithm for acoustic model parameter estimation.
problem Acoustic physical model parameter estimation for sound design.
method Multi-stage algorithm with deep learning, heuristics, and stochastic optimization.
result Optimization method refines deep learning estimates and improves objective metrics.
Study on hyperbolic knotoids, proving their volumes add and providing tables.
problem Defining and studying hyperbolic knotoids.
method Definitions and proofs for hyperbolicity of spherical and planar knotoids, including volume calculations.
result Volumes of hyperbolic spherical knotoids add and rational knotoids have least volume.
The study optimizes distribution estimation from samples with relative entropy error, adapting to sparse distributions.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high-probability accuracy in relative entropy.
method Analysis of Laplace estimator and confidence-dependent smoothing techniques, including data-dependent smoothing.
result Optimal high-probability risk bounds for various estimators, including a new data-dependent smoothing method.
Paper develops a privacy-preserving nonparametric regression method.
problem Nonparametric regression with local differential privacy constraints.
method Privatised discretisation and Laplace noise applied to feature vectors and responses.
result Strongly universally consistent estimator for regression and classification.
New BO method optimizes functions efficiently even with unknown hyperparameters.
problem Inaccurate estimation of Gaussian process hyperparameters degrades BO performance.
method Exploits multi-armed bandit and novel training loss function for consistent hyperparameter estimation.
result Sub-linear convergence to global optimum with unknown hyperparameters.
New sampling scheme and estimator for efficient partition function computation in log-linear models.
problem Intractable partition function calculation in large log-linear models.
method Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) for efficient sampling and unbiased estimator.
result Accurate estimation of partition function in sub-linear time.
Noise regularization improves CDE models without overfitting.
problem Overfitting in neural network-based conditional density estimation.
method Noise regularization method that adds random perturbations to data.
result Noise regularization significantly outperforms other methods across various datasets and models.
Paper proposes a bias-constrained deep learning approach to non-linear estimation.
problem Designing unbiased estimators for non-linear models.
method Bias Constrained Estimator (BCE) using deep learning with bias constraints.
result Asymptotic MVUEs with Cramer Rao bound performance.
Noise Contrastive Priors improve neural network uncertainty estimates.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimates for neural network predictions.
method Noise Contrastive Priors (NCPs) train models to output high uncertainty for data outside the training distribution.
result NCPs prevent overfitting outside the training distribution and yield useful uncertainty estimates.
The paper explores efficient ways to represent categorical data.
problem Wasteful one-hot encoding of categorical variables.
method Investigates alternative, lower-dimensional real-valued representations.
result Proposed methods retain all predictive information without one-hot encoding.
AdaCliP reduces noise in private SGD training.
problem Privacy preserving machine learning over user data.
method Adaptive clipping of gradients to reduce noise in private SGD.
result AdaCliP adds less noise and improves model accuracy.
Efficiently adds or deletes data in GBDT models.
problem Traditional GBDT training requires all data to be accessed simultaneously, limiting add/delete operations.
method Proposes an online learning framework for GBDT supporting incremental and decremental learning.
result First work to unify incremental and decremental learning on GBDT in-place.
Paper studies quantized LRMR with random dithering for correlated tasks.
problem Estimating coefficient matrix in quantized multivariate regression.
method Uniform quantization with random dithering, constrained and regularized Lasso estimators.
result Achieves minimax optimal rate with dithering, slightly worsens quantization effect.
Develops a test for comparing linear models without assuming sparsity.
problem Testing equality of regression slopes in high-dimensional models.
method TIERS framework, self-normalization, ADDS estimator, plug-in approach.
result Robust test for equality of regression slopes under weak conditions.
Study improves portfolio risk estimation methods using robust covariance and CVaR constraints.
problem Improving portfolio risk estimation in the presence of financial data noise and extreme market conditions.
method Exploration of robust covariance estimators, application of CVaR constraints, use of K-means clustering in optimization.
result Robust covariance estimators can outperform market-weighted benchmarks, especially during bull markets.
A new estimator reduces bias and improves efficiency for staggered adoption studies.
problem Bias in difference-in-differences estimates for staggered adoption studies.
method Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects (FETWFE) estimator with automatic parameter selection.
result FETWFE identifies correct restrictions with probability tending to one, improving efficiency.
Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.
Study privacy and accuracy in high-dimensional LASSO with perturbation mechanisms.
problem Privacy-preserving sparse linear regression in high dimensions.
method Analyzes output and objective perturbation mechanisms using AMP.
result Sparsity affects privacy-accuracy trade-off; stronger regularization improves privacy.
FedPower improves eigenspace estimation privacy in federated learning.
problem Privacy breaches and communication challenges in federated eigenspace estimation.
method FedPower uses a power method with local power iterations and global aggregation, weighted by OPT, and adds Gaussian noise for privacy.
result FedPower provides convergence bounds and demonstrates effectiveness in experiments.
Adds examples to Goeritz groups for a specific type of 3-manifold splitting.
problem Characterizing Goeritz groups for a particular class of 3-manifolds.
method Analyzes Heegaard splittings of genus two Seifert manifolds with specific properties.
result Identifies new examples of Goeritz groups for the specified 3-manifolds.