Paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to predict retirement portfolios.
problem Retirement financial planning uncertainty.
method Monte Carlo simulations incorporating inflation, interest rates, etc.
result Probabilistic prediction of IRA and 401(k) values.
This paper has been withdrawn since it is superated by the latest version of arXiv:0812.1139 (this is the version which will appear in Rend. Circ. Mat. Palermo; it is a strengthening and elaboration of a paper published in Math. Proc. Camb. Phil. Soc. 144, 397-401 (2008))
This paper describes audEERING's submissions as well as additional evaluations for the One-Minute-Gradual (OMG) emotion recognition challenge. We provide the results for audio and video processing on subject (in)dependent evaluations. On the provided Development set, we achieved 0.343 Concordance Correlation Coefficien…
This paper investigates robust and efficient DR/RDR estimators for WATEs.
problem Lack of systematic investigation into robustness and efficiency conditions for WATE estimation.
method Proposes three RDR estimators using semiparametric efficient influence function and double/debiased machine learning.
result Demonstrates the practical relevance of the methods in medical and social sciences.
This paper proves all Pfaffian varieties are area-minimizing except hypersurfaces.
problem Proving area-minimizing property of Pfaffian varieties.
method Analyzing families of minimal real matrix varieties and proving area-minimizing property.
result All Pfaffian varieties are area-minimizing except hypersurfaces.
In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects,…
A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.
problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.
Method leverages data transfer for estimating CATE with KRR.
problem Leveraging findings from one study to estimate CATE in a different population.
method Overlap-adaptive transfer learning of CATE using kernel ridge regression.
result The method achieves superior efficiency and adaptability in estimating CATE.
Crash prediction is a critical component of road safety analyses. A widely adopted approach to crash prediction is application of regression based techniques. The underlying calibration process is often time-consuming, requiring significant domain knowledge and expertise and cannot be easily automated. This paper intro…
Kernel balancing weights are generalized as KRRR, providing better confidence intervals for treatment effects.
problem Lack of generalization error, correct feature specification, and limited to average effects.
method Interpreting kernel balancing weights as KRRR, relaxing feature specification, and extending Gaussian approximation.
result KRRR provides strong generalization properties and justifies confidence sets for causal functions.
Develops methods to estimate ratios of conditional expectation functions.
problem Estimating ratios of conditional expectation functions in causal inference.
method Orthogonal series estimator combined with debiased machine learning techniques.
result Valid pointwise and uniform asymptotic results for estimation and inference on CEFR.
Combines IV and observational data to estimate CATEs with low compliance and unobserved confounding.
problem Estimating CATEs in personalized medicine and analytics with observational data and weak IVs.
method Two-stage framework: first learns biased CATEs from observational data, then corrects using IV data.
result Effective in estimating CATEs with low compliance and unobserved confounding.
A new method for causal inference in high-dimensional data using machine learning.
problem Causal inference in high-dimensional observational data.
method Support Points Sample Splitting (SPSS) for efficient double machine learning (DML) in causal inference.
result Deep learning with SPSS and hybrid methods outperform SVM with SPSS in computational efficiency and estimation quality.
New method for robustly estimating treatment effects across different risk levels.
problem Missing risks and tail events in CATE, especially in aggregate analyses.
method Constructing a pseudo-outcome and regressing it on covariates using any regression learner.
result Robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects (CDTE).
A new method optimizes knot selection for spline dimensional decomposition in stochastic dynamic analysis.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for dynamical systems with non-smooth or oscillating nonlinear behaviors.
method Interpolation-based optimal knot selection method for SDD, improving accuracy and computational efficiency.
result SDD with proposed knot selection yields higher accuracy than other methods, as shown in a lower control arm example.
Optimal timing for borrowing from a 457(b) plan to maximize returns.
problem Deciding the best time to borrow from a tax-advantaged retirement account.
method Formulated and solved the optimal stopping problem for a loan from a 457(b) plan.
result Derived cutoff rules for optimal loan control, showing how to wait until a certain amount of money is accumulated.