A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Data set tracks real-time election results for 4 hours post-October 2019 Portuguese elections.
This work aims to test the Verdoorn Law, with the alternative specifications of (1)Kaldor (1966), for five regions (NUTS II) Portuguese from 1986 to 1994 and for the 28 NUTS III Portuguese in the period 1995 to 1999. Will, therefore, to analyze the existence of increasing returns to scale that characterize the phenomen…
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined …
A hybrid scheme uses GAs and DL for tile panel reconstruction.
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
Social media sites are becoming a key factor in politics. These platforms are easy to manipulate for the purpose of distorting information space to confuse and distract voters. Past works to identify disruptive patterns are mostly focused on analyzing the content of tweets. In this study, we jointly embed the informati…
Study detects fake news in Brazilian Portuguese using machine learning.
Complex dynamical systems driven by the unravelling of information can be modelled effectively by treating the underlying flow of information as the model input. Complicated dynamical behaviour of the system is then derived as an output. Such an information-based approach is in sharp contrast to the conventional mathem…
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
This paper examines how voter concentration affects election outcomes in district-based systems.
Taleb (2018) claimed a novel approach to evaluating the quality of probabilistic election forecasts via no-arbitrage pricing techniques and argued that popular forecasts of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election had violated arbitrage boundaries. We show that under mild assumptions all such political forecasts are arbitra…
A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.
Fuzzy Forests reduces feature space in high-dimensional survey data.
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
There are few papers about the consumption pattern of the Portuguese wine, using econometrics techniques. This work, pretend to analyze the consumers behavior of the wine produced in Portugal, determining the demand equation with panel data methods. There were used statistical data available in the Alentejo Regional Wi…
With this work we try to analyse the agglomeration process in the Portuguese regions, using the New Economic Geography models. In these models the base idea is that where has increasing returns to scale in the manufactured industry and low transport costs, there is agglomeration. Of referring, as summary conclusion, th…
The 2016 United States presidential election has been characterized as a period of extreme divisiveness that was exacerbated on social media by the influence of fake news, trolls, and social bots. However, the extent to which the public became more polarized in response to these influences over the course of the electi…
The starting point of this article is the question "How to retrieve fingerprints of rhythm in written texts?" We address this problem in the case of Brazilian and European Portuguese. These two dialects of Modern Portuguese share the same lexicon and most of the sentences they produce are superficially identical. Yet t…
Remote sensing satellites capture the cyclic dynamics of our Planet in regular time intervals recorded in satellite time series data. End-to-end trained deep learning models use this time series data to make predictions at a large scale, for instance, to produce up-to-date crop cover maps. Most time series classificati…
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
In accordance with "Democracy's Effect on Development: More Questions than Answers", we seek to carry out a study in following the description in the 'Questions for Further Study.' To that end, we studied 33 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, who all went through an election which should signal a "step-up" for…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker), at economic sectors level of the NUTs III of mainland Portugal, from 1995 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2005 (taking in count the data availability and the Portuguese and European context), c…
In this paper, we explore the detection of clusters of stocks that are in synergy in the Indian Stock Market and understand their behaviour in different circumstances. We have based our study on high frequency data for the year 2014. This was a year when general elections were held in India, keeping this in mind our da…
Study uses Viber and street polls to estimate Belarus election ratings and turnout.
In recent years there has been a closer interrelationship between several scientific areas trying to obtain a more realistic and rich explanation of the natural and social phenomena. Among these it should be emphasized the increasing interrelationship between physics and financial theory. In this field the analysis of …
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
Paper proposes a faster neural machine translation model using election methods and Q-learning.
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in the conditional product convergence in the parishes' economies of mainland Portugal between 1991 and 2001 (the last year with data available for this spatial disaggregation level). To analyse the data, Moran's I statistic…
With this work it is analyzed the import and export of horticultural products between Portugal and the other world countries. It is used data about Portuguese international trade of vegetables from 2006 to 2010. The data were obtained from the INE (Statistics Portugal), gently given by the AICEP (Trade & Investment Age…
We consider the estimation of binary election outcomes as martingales and propose an arbitrage pricing when one continuously updates estimates. We argue that the estimator needs to be priced as a binary option as the arbitrage valuation minimizes the conventionally used Brier score for tracking the accuracy of probabil…
The goal of this research was to find a way to extend the capabilities of computers through the processing of language in a more human way, and present applications which demonstrate the power of this method. This research presents a novel approach, Rhetorical Analysis, to solving problems in Natural Language Processin…
The consideration of spatial effects at a regional level is becoming increasingly frequent and the work of Anselin (1988), among others, has contributed to this. This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker) in the NUTs III economic …
About the economic growth the Keynesian theorists defend circular and cumulative processes, benefiting the rich localities and harming the poorest, without external interventions. In these processes the Verdoorn law has an important role. For Verdoorn (1949) the productivity growth rate is endogenous and depends of the…
In this work it is presented some considerations about entrepreneurship. Most of these questions are linked with Portuguese context. Portugal has some particularities, namely because the asymmetries between the littoral and the interior. This situation carried out some problems that complicate and prevent the appearanc…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran's I statistics is considered, and …
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
A study ranks critical Lean Six Sigma tools for implementation in Portuguese companies.
With this study we want to test the validity of the well known "Verdoorn's Law" which considers the relationship between the growth of productivity and output in the case of the Portuguese economy at a regional and sectoral levels (NUTs II) for the period 1995-1999. The importance of some additional variables in the or…
Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare …
A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social m…
Stratifying patients at risk for postoperative complications may facilitate timely and accurate workups and reduce the burden of adverse events on patients and the health system. Currently, a widely-used surgical risk calculator created by the American College of Surgeons, NSQIP, uses 21 preoperative covariates to asse…
Replication confirms CGD's effectiveness in competitive games.
Abstracts index for ML4H workshop at NeurIPS 2019.
Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
VoxCeleb 2019 challenge assesses speaker recognition in uncontrolled settings.