A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We refute Taleb's claim that election forecasts are arbitrage-violating.
A framework traces ideology changes on social media during the 2016 U.S. election.
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined …
We consider the estimation of binary election outcomes as martingales and propose an arbitrage pricing when one continuously updates estimates. We argue that the estimator needs to be priced as a binary option as the arbitrage valuation minimizes the conventionally used Brier score for tracking the accuracy of probabil…
Study of negative ads on social media during U.S. midterm elections.
Data set tracks real-time election results for 4 hours post-October 2019 Portuguese elections.
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
Model election dynamics and disinformation impact using information flow.
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
This paper examines how voter concentration affects election outcomes in district-based systems.
A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.
Fuzzy Forests reduces feature space in high-dimensional survey data.
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
Remote sensing satellites capture the cyclic dynamics of our Planet in regular time intervals recorded in satellite time series data. End-to-end trained deep learning models use this time series data to make predictions at a large scale, for instance, to produce up-to-date crop cover maps. Most time series classificati…
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
The study uncovers stock synergy networks using mutual information in Indian stock market data.
We present a new modeling technique for solving the problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level associations are inferred from labeled data available only at the aggregate level. We model aggregate count data as arising from the Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identic…
In accordance with "Democracy's Effect on Development: More Questions than Answers", we seek to carry out a study in following the description in the 'Questions for Further Study.' To that end, we studied 33 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, who all went through an election which should signal a "step-up" for…
Study uses Viber and street polls to estimate Belarus election ratings and turnout.
During times of extreme market turmoil, it is acknowledged that there is a tendency towards "flight to safety". A strong (weak) safe haven is defined as an asset that has a significant positive (negative) return in periods where another asset is in distress, while hedge has to be negatively correlated (uncorrelated) on…
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
Paper proposes a faster neural machine translation model using election methods and Q-learning.
The goal of this research was to find a way to extend the capabilities of computers through the processing of language in a more human way, and present applications which demonstrate the power of this method. This research presents a novel approach, Rhetorical Analysis, to solving problems in Natural Language Processin…
This is the Proceedings of the 2016 ICML Workshop on Human Interpretability in Machine Learning (WHI 2016), which was held in New York, NY, June 23, 2016. Invited speakers were Susan Athey, Rich Caruana, Jacob Feldman, Percy Liang, and Hanna Wallach.
This is the Proceedings of NIPS 2016 Workshop on Interpretable Machine Learning for Complex Systems, held in Barcelona, Spain on December 9, 2016
Model shows wealth taxes can cause sudden emigration waves, impacting GDP.
Detects anomalous behavior in social media users by analyzing content and connections.
Stratifying patients at risk for postoperative complications may facilitate timely and accurate workups and reduce the burden of adverse events on patients and the health system. Currently, a widely-used surgical risk calculator created by the American College of Surgeons, NSQIP, uses 21 preoperative covariates to asse…
New results for modeling voter probabilities in elections.
Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
Graph neural nets improve discrete choice modeling with network effects.
This is the Proceedings of the ICML Workshop on #Data4Good: Machine Learning in Social Good Applications, which was held on June 24, 2016 in New York.
Estimates mode of discrete distributions with fewer samples.
The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have to been analyzed. The source of time series data comes from Online Enerjisa Syst…
We present proofs of classical results in Poisson geometry using techniques from Dirac geometry. This article is based on mini-courses at the Poisson summer school in Geneva, June 2016, and at the workshop "Quantum Groups and Gravity" at the University of Waterloo, April 2016.
Bayesian nonparametric models for data with heterogeneous particles.
We propose using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to generate features from sequences of medical billing codes. Applying this novel use of CCA to a database of medical billing codes for patients with diverticulitis, we first demonstrate that the CCA embeddings capture meaningful relationships among the codes. We th…
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, sen…
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
As part of the 2016 public evaluation challenge on Detection and Classification of Acoustic Scenes and Events (DCASE 2016), the second task focused on evaluating sound event detection systems using synthetic mixtures of office sounds. This task, which follows the `Event Detection - Office Synthetic' task of DCASE 2013,…
Training of discrete latent variable models remains challenging because passing gradient information through discrete units is difficult. We propose a new class of smoothing transformations based on a mixture of two overlapping distributions, and show that the proposed transformation can be used for training binary lat…
Predicting the prices of stocks at any stock market remains a quest for many investors and researchers. Those who trade at the stock market tend to use technical, fundamental or time series analysis in their predictions. These methods usually guide on trends and not the exact likely prices. It is for this reason that A…
Geometric Graph Alignment enhances IoT intrusion detection using NID data.