arXiv research

Study improves caplet calibration for 1Y maturity using different models.

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in…

We construct a matrix $M\in R^{m\otimes d^c}$ with just $m=O(c\,λ\,\varepsilon^{-2}\text{poly}\log1/\varepsilonδ)$ rows, which preserves the norm $\|Mx\|_2=(1\pm\varepsilon)\|x\|_2$ of all $x$ in any given $λ$ dimensional subspace of $R^d$ with probability at least $1-δ$. This matrix can be applied to tensors $x^{(1)}…

Improved AMM protocol supports diverse loan maturities in DeFi.

The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but also by other contractual characteristics of the bond that are not commonly assoc…

Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort has been dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations or by choice, the literature largely lacks multiple loan maturities. We employ a complete interbank loan contract dataset to investigate w…

The new notion of maturity-independent risk measures is introduced and contrasted with the existing risk measurement concepts. It is shown, by means of two examples, one set on a finite probability space and the other in a diffusion framework, that, surprisingly, some of the widely utilized risk measures cannot be used…

Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.

The paper analyzes short maturity Asian options using large deviations theory.

Study short maturity Asian options in jump-diffusion models with local volatility.

This paper proposes a Monte Carlo technique for pricing the forward yield to maturity, when the volatility of the zero-coupon bond is known. We make the assumption of deterministic default intensity (Hazard Rate Function). We make no assumption on the volatility of the yield. We actually calculate the initial value of …

Let $M^3 \subset \mathbb{C}^2$ be a $\mathcal{C}^ω$ Levi nondegenerate hypersurface. In the literature, Cartan-Moser chains are detected from rather advanced considerations: either from the construction of a Cartan connection associated with the CR equivalence problem; or from the construction of a formal or converging…

We correct a mistake in the published version of our paper. Our new conclusion is that the "implied leverage effect" for single stocks is underestimated by option markets for short maturities and overestimated for long maturities, while it is always overestimated for OEX options, except for the shortest maturities wher…

Study short-maturity VIX and European option prices with jumps.

Asymptotic analysis of short-maturity options on realized variance in local-stochastic volatility models.

We present a rigorous study of the short maturity asymptotics for Asian options with continuous-time averaging, under the assumption that the underlying asset follows the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model. We present an analytical approximation for the Asian options prices which has the appropriate short matu…

We provide explicit conditions on the distribution of risk-neutral log-returns which yield sharp asymptotic estimates on the implied volatility smile. We allow for a variety of asymptotic regimes, including both small maturity (with arbitrary strike) and extreme strike (with arbitrary bounded maturity), extending previ…

This paper discusses the short-maturity behavior of Asian option prices and hedging portfolios. We consider the risk-neutral valuation and the delta value of the Asian option having a Hölder continuous payoff function in a local volatility model. The main idea of this analysis is that the local volatility model can be …

Cryptocurrencies show mature market characteristics but vary by size.

We consider the at-the-money strike derivative of implied volatility as the maturity tends to zero. Our main results quantify the behavior of the slope for infinite activity exponential Lévy models including a Brownian component. As auxiliary results, we obtain asymptotic expansions of short maturity at-the-money digit…

Paper models non-maturing deposits using a Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts …

We consider a stochastic volatility model which captures relevant stylized facts of financial series, including the multi-scaling of moments. The volatility evolves according to a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with super-linear mean reversion. Using large deviations techniques, we determine the asymptotic sh…

We prove here a general closed-form expansion formula for forward-start options and the forward implied volatility smile in a large class of models, including the Heston stochastic volatility and time-changed exponential Lévy models. This expansion applies to both small and large maturities and is based solely on the p…

We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities $\mathcal{P}$. The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level $0$ of some continuous index process at which the payoff process is even allowed to have…

Study short-term behavior of up-and-in barrier options using Malliavin calculus.

We build on the work in Fackler and King 1990, and propose a more general calibration model for implied risk neutral densities. Our model allows for the joint calibration of a set of densities at different maturities and dates through a Bayesian dynamic Beta Markov Random Field. Our approach allows for possible time de…

Study near-maturity convergence rates of American put prices in Lévy models.

Study short-maturity Asian option pricing in LSV models using large deviations theory.

Study shows non-convergence of short-maturity expansion in SABR model.

In some options markets (e.g. commodities), options are listed with only a single maturity for each underlying. In others, (e.g. equities, currencies), options are listed with multiple maturities. In this paper, we provide an algorithm for calibrating a pure jump Markov martingale model to match the market prices of Eu…

We provide a full characterisation of the large-maturity forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model. Although the leading decay is provided by a fairly classical large deviations behaviour, the algebraic expansion providing the higher-order terms highly depends on the parameters, and different powers of the m…

The study examines collective behavior in banking sectors across mature and emerging markets.

Classical (Itô diffusions) stochastic volatility models are not able to capture the steepness of small-maturity implied volatility smiles. Jumps, in particular exponential Lévy and affine models, which exhibit small-maturity exploding smiles, have historically been proposed to remedy this (see \cite{Tank} for an overvi…

Study finds rough volatility models underperform in SPX option pricing.

Study pricing of American put options with stochastic interest rate and finite maturity.

A machine learning method for short-maturity options with jumps and stochastic volatility.

The paper develops a model for sovereign debt dynamics with explicit maturity structure.

In this work we derive an approximated no-arbitrage market valuation formula for Constant Maturity Credit Default Swaps (CMCDS). We move from the CDS options market model in Brigo (2004), and derive a formula for CMCDS that is the analogous of the formula for constant maturity swaps in the default free swap market unde…

The paper analyzes gold, oil, and bitcoin futures volatility and basis.

This paper analyzes Libor interest rates for seven different maturities and referred to operations in British Pounds, Euro, Swiss Francs and Japanese Yen, during the period years 2001 to 2015. The analysis is performed by means of two quantifiers derived from Information Theory: the permutation Shannon entropy and the …

New asymptotic formula for option prices with interest rates and dividend yield effects.

We invert the Black-Scholes formula. We consider the cases low strike, large strike, short maturity and large maturity. We give explicitly the first 5 terms of the expansions. A method to compute all the terms by induction is also given. At the money, we have a closed form formula for implied lognormal volatility in te…

Study finds a small correction to Asian option volatility.

In this paper we investigate the asymptotics of forward-start options and the forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model as the maturity approaches zero. We prove that the forward smile for out-of-the-money options explodes and compute a closed-form high-order expansion detailing the rate of the explosion. Fu…

Model shows how banks' hidden-to-maturity accounting can mask run risk and lead to financial instability.

We revisit the ``Smile Dynamics'' problem, which consists in relating the implied leverage (i.e. the correlation of the at-the-money volatility with the returns of the underlying) and the skew of the option smile. The ratio between these two quantities, called ``Skew-Stickiness Ratio'' (SSR) by Bergomi (Smile Dynamics …

We study the behavior of the critical price of an American put option near maturity in the exponential Lévy model when the underlying stock pays dividends at a continuous rate. In particular, we prove that, in situations where the limit of the critical price is equal to the stock price, the rate of convergence to the l…