Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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20406080 · Nov 201919922001200920172026
48 results for 150 years

Estimates returns for dollar cost averaging using geometric Brownian motion.

problem Estimating returns for dollar cost averaging investing strategy.
method Uses geometric Brownian motion and log-Normal distribution to construct a lower bound for returns. Computes parameters recursively and in closed form for dollar cost averaging. Compares to lump sum investing for matching wealth distributions.
result Probability of negative returns is less than 2.5% for 40 years of annual dollar cost averaging.

Deep learning models outperform classical methods in text classification.

problem Improving text classification accuracy using deep learning.
method Comprehensive review of deep learning models and datasets for text classification.
result Deep learning models outperform classical methods on various text classification tasks.

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative meas…

2015-01-06abs ↗pdf ↗

We construct the Google matrices of bitcoin transactions for all year quarters during the period of January 11, 2009 till April 10, 2013. During the last quarters the network size contains about 6 million users (nodes) with about 150 million transactions. From PageRank and CheiRank probabilities, analogous to trade imp…

2019-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Square Clifford torus uniquely determined by isoperimetric ratio, rectangular torus not.

problem Uniqueness of 3D shape of rectangular Clifford torus based on isoperimetric ratio.
method Closed-form formulas for isoperimetric ratio of stereographic projection, strict monotonicity.
result Isoperimetric ratio does not uniquely determine rectangular Clifford torus shape.

The key cryptographic protocols used to secure the internet and financial transactions of today are all susceptible to attack by the development of a sufficiently large quantum computer. One particular area at risk are cryptocurrencies, a market currently worth over 150 billion USD. We investigate the risk of Bitcoin, …

2017-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds no consistent return predictability using payout ratios across 16 countries.

problem Return predictability using payout ratios in various markets.
method Analysis of 16 developed countries' bond, equity, and housing markets using payout-price ratios.
result No consistent in-sample and out-of-sample performance with positive utility gain.

In study of eigenvalue problems, a classical problem is the Stekloff eigenvalue problem. There are many estimates of the first non- zero Stekloff eigenvalue, including a sharp estimate on surfaces, obtained by Escobar in "The geometry of the first non-zero Stekloff eigenvalue, J. Funct. Anal. 150 (1997)". In this paper…

2015-04-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Study models extreme skew surges along French Atlantic coast.

problem Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges for coastal risk management.
method Peak-over-threshold framework, multivariate generalized Pareto distribution, extreme regression framework.
result Reconstructed historical skew surge time series at stations with limited data.

This book, which is in Spanish, provides detailed descriptions, including over 550 mathematical formulas, for over 150 trading strategies across a host of asset classes (and trading styles). This includes stocks, options, fixed income, futures, ETFs, indexes, commodities, foreign exchange, convertibles, structured asse…

2019-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Study analyzes Airbnb lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value, finding divergent shapes and tail behavior.

problem Analyzing lead-time distributions for Airbnb demand metrics.
method Compositional analysis of daily lead-time vectors, fitting Gamma, Weibull, and Lognormal distributions, using generalized Pareto for tail inference.
result Lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value diverge, with GBV concentrating more in mid-range horizons.

Over 150,000 new people in the United States are diagnosed with colorectal cancer each year. Nearly a third die from it (American Cancer Society). The only approved noninvasive diagnosis tools currently involve fecal blood count tests (FOBTs) or stool DNA tests. Fecal blood count tests take only five minutes and are av…

2017-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

ASKAP observes a region of the Galactic plane, identifying 3963 radio sources.

problem Characterizing radio sources in the Galactic plane using ASKAP observations.
method 912 MHz observations with 15 ASKAP antennas, source characterization using CAESAR.
result Differential source counts in agreement with previous surveys, spectral index estimation for sources.

Study analyzes global public sentiment on DeFi from 2012-2022.

problem Global public sentiment on DeFi is understudied.
method Sentiment analysis, spatial econometrics, clustering, topic modeling.
result Economic development significantly influences DeFi engagement, especially after 2015.

While recent NAS algorithms are thousands of times faster than the pioneering works, it is often overlooked that they use fewer candidate operations, resulting in a significantly smaller search space. We present PR-DARTS, a NAS algorithm that discovers strong network configurations in a much larger search space and a s…

2019-06-18abs ↗pdf ↗

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a sta…

2011-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep convolutional neural networks are known to specialize in distilling compact and robust prior from a large amount of data. We are interested in applying deep networks in the absence of training dataset. In this paper, we introduce deep audio prior (DAP) which leverages the structure of a network and the temporal in…

2019-12-21abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then governed by another GP. A single layer model is equivalent to a standard GP or the GP …

2012-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Top 8 robotic vision systems tackled lifelong object recognition challenges.

problem Lifelong learning in robotic vision for varied, dynamic environments.
method Design of a dataset with diverse conditions and rules for evaluation.
result Robotic vision systems improved over time with dynamic object appearances.

The study finds totally geodesic surfaces in hyperbolic 3-manifolds and verifies a conjecture.

problem Finding totally geodesic surfaces in hyperbolic 3-manifolds.
method Developed algorithms to determine and verify the existence of totally geodesic surfaces.
result Discovered nine 3-manifolds with totally geodesic surfaces and verified Menasco-Reid's conjecture for knots up to 12 crossings.

5D AI model detects bad loans without biased features, improving consumer protection.

problem Detecting bad loans without biased features and improving consumer protection.
method Machine learning, BiMOPT features, European Banking Authority principles, AI principles, historical and validation datasets.
result 5D correctly detected 1,461 bad loans out of 1,613 (Sensitivity = 0.91, Prevalence = 0.0253, Positive Predictive Value = 0.19).

There has been an increased interest in discovering heuristics for combinatorial problems on graphs through machine learning. While existing techniques have primarily focused on obtaining high-quality solutions, scalability to billion-sized graphs has not been adequately addressed. In addition, the impact of budget-con…

2019-03-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine-generated interpretations do not improve users' guessing accuracy in image classifiers.

problem Determining the usefulness of machine-generated explanations for deep neural networks.
method Human evaluation of crowd workers guessing incorrectly predicted labels with and without visual interpretations.
result Showing machine-generated visual interpretations decreased average guessing accuracy by about 10%.

This article studies local and global inference for smoothing spline estimation in a unified asymptotic framework. We first introduce a new technical tool called functional Bahadur representation, which significantly generalizes the traditional Bahadur representation in parametric models, that is, Bahadur [Ann. Inst. S…

2012-12-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Recent automated crop mapping via supervised learning-based methods have demonstrated unprecedented improvement over classical techniques. However, most crop mapping studies are limited to same-year crop mapping in which the present year's labeled data is used to predict the same year's crop map. Classification accurac…

2019-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Gold prices show seasonal behavior, with January and July having opposite returns.

problem Seasonal behavior in gold prices during the turn of the year.
method Statistical analysis and decomposition techniques.
result Gold prices exhibit strong cyclical behavior during the turn-of-the-year period, with January showing the highest return and July showing significant negative returns.

This study examines representation bias in open-source Qwen models for investment decisions.

problem Representation bias in financial applications of large language models.
method Balanced round-robin prompting over 150 U.S. equities, constrained decoding, token-logit aggregation.
result Firm size and valuation increase model confidence, while risk factors decrease it.

A linear link between S&P 500 return and the change rate of the number of nine-year-olds in the USA has been found. The return is represented by a sum of monthly returns during previous twelve months. The change rate of the specific age population is represented by moving averages. The period between January 1990 and D…

2008-11-03abs ↗pdf ↗

To solve key biomedical problems, experimentalists now routinely measure millions or billions of features (dimensions) per sample, with the hope that data science techniques will be able to build accurate data-driven inferences. Because sample sizes are typically orders of magnitude smaller than the dimensionality of t…

2017-09-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Market valuation duration is 175 years, but drops to 46 years during crises.

problem Understanding the duration of market valuation and its impact on returns.
method Comparing market valuation ratios and dividends to estimate duration, analyzing the discount rate effect.
result Valuation duration is negatively correlated with market returns, with a robust out-of-sample R2 of 15%.