A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by \emph{general}, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that when the stochastic processes satisfy a generalized Bernstein-type inequality, a u…
We study a special case of the problem of statistical learning without the i.i.d. assumption. Specifically, we suppose a learning method is presented with a sequence of data points, and required to make a prediction (e.g., a classification) for each one, and can then observe the loss incurred by this prediction. We go …
The literature on statistical learning for time series assumes the asymptotic independence or ``mixing' of the data-generating process. These mixing assumptions are never tested, nor are there methods for estimating mixing rates from data. We give an estimator for the β-mixing rate based on a single stationary sample…
Bayesian optimization tackles mixed discrete-continuous problems with Gaussian processes.
problem Optimizing problems with both discrete and continuous variables using costly simulations.
method Relaxing discrete variables into continuous latent variables, using Bayesian optimization, and incorporating compatibility constraints with Lagrangians.
result Comparative analysis of different mixed Bayesian optimization approaches.
We introduce a novel multivariate random process producing Bernoulli outputs per dimension, that can possibly formalize binary interactions in various graphical structures and can be used to model opinion dynamics, epidemics, financial and biological time series data, etc. We call this a Bernoulli Autoregressive Proces…
Deep normative modeling of clinical neuroimaging data improves diagnostic performance.
problem Modeling variation of neuroimaging measures across individuals for psychiatric disorders.
method Proposes a deep normative modeling framework based on neural processes (NPs) for spatially structured mixed-effect modeling of neuroimaging data.
result Substantial improvements in novelty detection performance for certain diagnostic problems.
In this short paper, in order to price occupation-time options, such as (double-barrier) step options and quantile options, we derive various joint distributions of a mixed-exponential jump-diffusion process and its occupation times of intervals.
Flexible non-stationary modeling of spatial outcomes using a mixed-stationary Gaussian process.
problem Limited flexibility in non-stationary models and computational intractability.
method Developed a non-stationary Gaussian process with individually set stationarity parameters at each location, using a non-parametric mixture model to reduce parameters and incorporate spatial correlation.
result Improved prediction efficiency through spatially correlated components in the mixture model.
We investigate the systematic mechanism for designing fast mixing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to sample from discrete point processes under the Dobrushin uniqueness condition for Gibbs measures. Discrete point processes are defined as probability distributions μ(S)∝exp(βf(S)) over all subsets $S\in 2^…
We introduce a general framework of the Mixed-correlated ARFIMA (MC-ARFIMA) processes which allows for various specifications of univariate and bivariate long-term memory. Apart from a standard case when Hxy=12(Hx+Hy), MC-ARFIMA also allows for processes with Hxy<12(Hx+Hy) but also for long-range …
Particle MCMC involves using a particle filter within an MCMC algorithm. For inference of a model which involves an unobserved stochastic process, the standard implementation uses the particle filter to propose new values for the stochastic process, and MCMC moves to propose new values for the parameters. We show how p…
This paper stidies the first passage times to constant boundaries for mixed-exponential jump diffusion processes. Explicit solutions of the Laplace transforms of the distribution of the first passage times, the joint distribution of the first passage times and undershoot (overshoot) are obtained. As applications, we pr…