On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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← all fields·7 papers on “bayesian” in Statistical ML · 1 month

Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Predictionstat.ML

Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction improves prediction set sizes.

problem Misspecification of Bayesian working model and prior misalignment.

method RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage) framework with two instantiations.

result Improves prediction set sizes in shifted settings.

Bayesian Conformal Prediction Robustness Shrinkage Tabular Data

2026-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Predictionstat.ML

Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction improves prediction set sizes.

problem Misspecification of Bayesian working model and prior misalignment.

method RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage) framework with two instantiations.

result Proposed scores adapt to prior quality, reducing interval widths in shifted settings.

Bayesian Conformal Prediction Robustness Shrinkage Nonconformity Scores

2026-07-05abs ↗pdf ↗

A Mathematical Optimization Approach for Expert-Informed Bayesian Best Subset Selectioncs.LG

EBBS integrates expert assessments into MIO best-subsets problem.

problem Identifying relevant features in statistical models.

method Expert-implied Bayesian approach using MIO.

result Reduces to classical best-subsets when experts are silent.

Bayesian MIO Expert assessment Feature selection Statistical modeling

2026-06-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification with Abstention: A Polynomial-to-Exponential Phase Transitioncs.LG

Adaptive algorithm identifies best arm with abstention, showing phase transition from polynomial to exponential error probability.

problem Bayesian best-arm identification with abstention to reduce undetected error.

method Adaptive algorithm PGWS that optimally uses abstention budget.

result Introducing any positive abstention budget induces an exponential decay in undetected error probability.

best-arm identification abstention phase transition Bayesian undetected error

2026-06-28abs ↗pdf ↗

A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantificationstat.ML

Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.

problem Calibrating aerodynamic models with sparse and uncertain measurements.

method Bayesian latent Gaussian process for surrogate model calibration.

result Calibrated surrogate model accurately predicts aerodynamic uncertainty.

aerodynamics uncertainty quantification Gaussian process calibration surrogate modeling

2026-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantificationstat.ML

Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification

problem Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty for complex models

method Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty

result Asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification, recovers robust sandwich covariance under misspecification

Ribbon Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty quantification scalable

2026-06-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design with Singly Intractable Objectivesstat.ML

Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design

problem Bayesian experimental design with doubly intractable objectives

method Formulating BED in terms of expected future loss (EFL) and optimising it with stochastic gradients

result Simplified and task-driven framework for BED

Bayesian Experimental Design Doubly Intractable Action-BED

2026-06-22abs ↗pdf ↗